The missiles to be used in the attacks, the message claims, were used in 2004 attacks against British airports. Although no such attack occurred, U.S. President George W. Bush said in a speech that Washington, in coordination with its allies, thwarted an attempted attack against London's Heathrow Airport. That plot, Bush said, was to have used a commercial airliner hijacked from a country in which security is not so high. Also, British newspaper The Sunday Times reported that British intelligence officials said they had obtained information in February 2003 about a two-pronged plan, which also was to have involved a "mortar attack" against a departing plane.

An interesting aspect of the message is that it mentions Suleiman Abu Ghaith, the al Qaeda spokesman who surfaced in videotapes issued by the jihadist network after the Sept. 11 attacks -- around the time of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan -- but who has not been heard of since. The message appears to congratulate Abu Ghaith on the birth of his son. Abu Ghaith's whereabouts remain unknown since the battle of Tora Bora, but reports have surfaced that he, al-Adel and three of Osama bin Laden's sons are among a group of 25 senior al Qaeda operatives enjoying the hospitality of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in eastern Iran. Deputy al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri -- who for a long time also was thought to be hiding in Iran -- mentioned in a recent letter to Iraq's al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi that certain of their "brothers" were in Iranian custody. Whether they are roaming about in relative freedom or are under lock and key depends on whose point of view one believes.

Jihadists have threatened Italy in the past, largely because it has some 2,700 troops stationed in Iraq -- the fourth-largest contingent after the United States, Britain and South Korea. Italian authorities have responded to these threats by arresting suspected radical and militant Islamists accused of plotting attacks. Moreover, radical Islamists attach a special importance to Italy, which they call the "land of the Romans." There are a number of historical reasons for this, including the defeat of the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire by Muslim armies and the Roman Catholic Church's Crusades against the Islamic world. More importantly, the prophet Mohammed reportedly foretold that Muslims would conquer Rome and Constantinople. Because Rome has never fallen to Muslim armies, radical Islamists take Mohammed's words to mean the fall is yet to come.

The Internet message is significant because it was posted under the name of al-Adel, who also goes by the noms de guerre Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi and Ibrahim al-Madani. Al-Adel is an Egyptian in his 40s who was a colonel in the Egyptian military's special forces until he left for Afghanistan sometime during the 1980s to fight in the war against the Soviets. Al-Adel purportedly took over from original al Qaeda No. 3 Mohammed Atef, aka Abu Hafs al-Masri -- another former Egyptian police officer whose daughter is married to one of bin Laden's sons -- after Atef died in a U.S. airstrike in eastern Afghanistan in November 2001.

Although the title "No. 3" has been assigned to captured senior al Qaeda leaders Abu Zubaydah, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Farj al-Libi, al-Adel likely is the real No. 3. The lack of information on his whereabouts has fueled speculations that he likely is in Iran. U.S. officials reportedly broke off back-channel talks with Iran following the May 2003 triple bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, after U.S. intelligence reportedly traced the attacks back to al-Adel in Iran. Al-Adel also authored articles in a 2004 issue of the al Qaeda training manual Maaskar al-Battar, which likely was published from somewhere in Saudi Arabia.

The Internet message is somewhat suspect because it names the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades as being in charge of the operation in Italy. This al Qaeda unit claimed in the past that it was responsible for the blackout in the northeastern United States in the summer of 2003 -- a blackout caused by a power failure. Furthermore, the new threat against Italy emerged in the murky medium of cyberspace, making it extremely difficult to gauge its authenticity. Both the information in the message and related developments, however, prevent us from dismissing the threat as completely bogus.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com

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