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| Washington Watch: So is
Lebanon a friend or foe? By Douglas M. Bloomfield Before resuming arms shipments, Congress should demand evidence that LAF is part of the solution, not the problem. US military assistance for Lebanon has been frozen by two powerful members of Congress while they and their colleagues try to figure out what they want in exchange for reopening the pipeline. Theres no evidence so far that American-supplied arms were used in the unprovoked attack by Lebanese forces on Israeli soldiers working on their own side of the border last month, but the incident raises the question of whether we are arming albeit disproportionately two friends for war against each other. Or are we inadvertently arming a terrorist organization? The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are no match for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF); in fact, they are not even a match for the better-armed and trained Hezbollah, which has vowed to join with the LAF in any conflict with Israel. Hezbollah has massively rearmed since the 2006 war with Israel, acquiring more and longer-range missiles capable of hitting nearly all Israeli population centers. Hezbollah has steadily expanded its political power as well, becoming the countrys dominant force. With its allies it holds a virtual veto in the cabinet and parliament, and can paralyze the government, as it did in 2008 to block an attempt to dismantle its telecommunications system. Hezbollahs biggest fear right now isnt war with Israel but a Special International Tribunal implicating it in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and 22 others in February 2005. Hassan Nasrallah, the groups leader, has warned that indictments of Hezbollah could spark another civil war. His latest ploy to deflect blame is to say Israel murdered Hariri in an attempt to incite anti-Syrian hostility in Lebanon. Even many Lebanese who oppose Hezbollah are reluctant to see it accused of the murders, not because they believe it is innocent but because they fear it would provoke violence that would destroy the current economic boom their country is enjoying. The assassination triggered the Cedar Revolution, the Syrian withdrawal and the formation of an independent government strongly backed by the United States. But American influence soon began to wane due to a lack of meaningful follow-through and distractions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Syrian political influence, however, has steadily resumed; its army has not yet returned, but Hezbollah represents the interests of Syria and Iran, which have made sure the terror group is well armed and trained. UNIFIL, the United Nations force supposedly overseeing the ceasefire and preventing Hezbollah from rearming, has been a hopeless failure. THE BUSH and Obama administrations have sent hundreds of millions of dollars in training and equipment to the LAF, but have paid scant attention to Lebanon even though it could too easily ignite another war much more lethal than the last one. Many LAF officers and units are believed to be sympathetic if not actually loyal to Hezbollah. One such unit is believed responsible for the recent attack on Israeli soldiers. Rep. Howard Berman (D-California), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY), chair of the appropriations subcommittee that controls foreign aid spending, have placed holds on $100 million in US military aid in the pipeline for Lebanon, citing concerns over Hezbollahs access to those weapons and its influence in the LAF. Berman wants an in-depth policy review before resuming the aid, and Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-NY) is expected to hold hearings next month in his Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Middle East. Rep. Eric Cantor, the second ranking Republican in the House, agrees. He wants aid blocked until the US can certify that the LAF is not cooperating with Hezbollah. He said Washington has given Lebanon $720 million in military training and equipment since 2006, including assault rifles, missile launchers, grenade launchers and night-vision gear. Before reopening the pipeline, lawmakers should demand some answers: What is the level of Hezbollah influence in the LAF? Can the LAF ever realistically guarantee the security and independence of a democratic Lebanon? Can American weapons be kept out of the hands of Hezbollah? Lebanese President Michel Suleiman suggested Lebanon would go to neighboring and friendly states to get what it needed, implying Syria and Iran. Is that in Americas best interest? Its not a choice between good and bad but between bad and worse, said a Congressional expert on the region. If we stop selling arms which are not top quality to begin with theyll have no trouble getting them elsewhere and we would lose important access and influence with the LAF. That would only enhance the role of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran and diminish opportunities for the LAF to play a stabilizing role in the country. How can Washington help? The administration should seek to broker a series of quiet understandings between Israel and Lebanon that will stabilize the border, prevent future incidents and, if they do occur, make sure they dont escalate. The US is the only player capable of filling that role UNIFIL cant, and the current Lebanese government wont negotiate directly with Israel. Before resuming arms shipments, Congress should demand evidence that the LAF is part of the solution, not the problem. |