Israel: Al Qaeda Among the Palestinians?

Summary

Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, head of Israel's military intelligence, warned Oct. 17 that several al Qaeda operatives recently infiltrated the Gaza Strip from Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, and that the global jihadist network is working to establish its presence in the Palestinian territory. We previously warned about the possibility of al Qaeda moving into Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal. An al Qaeda presence could upset the political calculations of the three main players in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict -- Israel, the Palestinian National Authority and Hamas.

Analysis

Israel's military intelligence chief said Oct. 17 that transnational jihadists suspected of having al Qaeda links might have infiltrated Gaza to recruit Palestinians in the wake of Israel's withdrawal from the territory in September. Speaking with the daily Maariv, Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash said, "We know of around 10 global jihad operatives who infiltrated into Gaza from the Sinai during the Philadelphi episode." He also said the militant intrusion represents the initial stirrings of "an al Qaeda infrastructure in Gaza." Zeevi-Farkash went on to warn that these global jihadists will woo disaffected Palestinian Islamist militants to the al Qaeda cause, which poses "a significant threat." During the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, we warned that al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists could try to take advantage of the decreased security in Gaza and open up a new area of operations.

This development could offset Israel's security planning as it prepares for the eventual emergence of a Palestinian state; it could also create further problems of governability for the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) as it seeks to transition to full statehood. An al Qaeda presence in the Israeli-Palestinian theater could also thwart Hamas' plans to emerge as a legitimate political entity -- not to mention the serious repercussions its presence would have for regional and international security, particularly for the neighboring Arab states of Egypt, Jordan and Syria. This could lead to a rise in tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors, especially given Arab nations' state of internal flux in the wake of the U.S. push for democratization in the region.

Israel recently said that al Qaeda posed a threat, but it was not an immediate concern; Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's senior counterterrorism official Danny Arditi said July 24 that Israel is not high on al Qaeda's target list for now. Arditi added that though the jihadist organization was moving in on Israel, it was "not yet close."

Israel has, in fact, probably been on the lookout for al Qaeda for some time. The attacks in the Sinai Peninsula in September 2004 and July 2005 clearly showed the Israelis that Egypt has lost the control it had maintained over jihadists within Egypt since the last major militant attack there in 1997. Also, the PNA is not about to improve security in the areas under its jurisdiction anytime soon. Given all of this, Israeli intelligence went into action and probably is still carrying out surveillance operations in the Sinai -- the most likely access point for al Qaeda to penetrate the Palestinian areas. This would explain an incident Oct. 10, when Egyptian security forces shot at an Israeli individual on the Israel-Egypt border. Egypt said the man was believed to be a smuggler. He was shot three times in the back before he managed to reach Israel's side of the border, where border police administered first aid before a helicopter took him to a hospital. The Israeli Defense Forces had no immediate comment.

The Egyptians, for their part, deny that activity in the Sinai is related to international jihadism. On Oct. 10, Cairo rejected Israeli intelligence claims that al Qaeda had established a base in the Sinai Peninsula. That claim followed comments from Israeli officials that the transnational jihadist network is trying to infiltrate Gaza because the Israeli withdrawal left security lax.

If al Qaeda can establish a significant foothold in Gaza, it would have severe consequences for Sharon, who just recently warded off political threats from within his own Likud Party. An al Qaeda attack against Israel would be perfect ammunition for Sharon's opponents, led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who are bitter over the withdrawal from Gaza. They would point to al Qaeda activity as proof that they were right in saying the withdrawal makes the Jewish state more vulnerable to terrorist attacks -- not safer from terrorism, which has been Sharon's argument.

An al Qaeda presence gives Israel an excuse to conduct future forays into the Gaza Strip -- and an edge in negotiations on relinquishing control of territory in the West Bank. This is not the only thing worrying the PNA; there is also the likelihood that al Qaeda could complicate PNA efforts to establish security in the Gaza strip. Thus far, the only real commitment to ease the security situation in Gaza has come from Hamas.

Hamas has its own plans to acquire political prowess while maintaining its militant character. After the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Hamas revised its tactical approach by laying out a plan to transfer its base of operations to the West Bank and compartmentalize Hamas cells to evade detection by Israel's defense forces. Hamas has long resisted becoming part of a transnational jihadist campaign, in order to avoid internationalizing the Palestinians' conflict with Israel. Going international would run the risk of undermining the establishment of a Palestinian state, crippling Hamas' political objectives and bringing increased pressure from external players to force Hamas to disarm.

Hamas' quest to become a legal political group already has its junior competitor, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), pitching itself as the "real" vanguard of resistance to Israeli occupation. PIJ, therefore, is the group al Qaeda is most likely to target for recruits. Also, PIJ is more pan-Islamist than Hamas, which is seeking to wrest control of the Palestinian nationalist scene from Fatah.

Essentially, al Qaeda will try to attract those young Islamist militants and radicals who are not too happy with Hamas' trajectory and for whom the Israeli withdrawal does not suffice. It is too early to say how successful al Qaeda will be in Gaza, but the sky is the limit -- because turmoil could make Palestine a failed state even before it comes into being.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com