Iraq: Sunnis' Split Opinions and the Constitution

Summary

The passage of the Iraqi draft constitution in an Oct. 15 referendum seems assured. With Sunni divisions over the document intensifying just hours before the vote, opponents of the constitution will not be able to pull together enough support to defeat the document.

Analysis

On Oct. 14, offices of the Iraqi Islamic Party, a leading Islamist Sunni party, were attacked in Baghdad, Al Fallujah and Baiji. No injuries were reported, but the attacks were clearly in retaliation against the party's decision to support the draft constitution. Since the Oct. 12 deal was struck among Sunnis, Shia and Kurds to adjust the draft in an effort to bring more Sunnis into the fold, Sunnis have become consumed by internal disputes and struggle as the agreement has generated throughout the community. This effectively guarantees that the constitution will be approved in the Oct. 15 referendum.

With some Sunni groups now supporting the draft, other key groups and figures have declared that they will vote against the draft, others say they will abstain, and still more now say they are undecided at the eleventh hour. Even within the various groups and parties, leaders are proving unable to speak for all of their supposed followers, as many Sunnis now seem to be making up their own minds about the constitution regardless of what their leaders are saying.

This turns the outcome of the referendum into one of simple arithmetic. The rules of the referendum, according to article 61(C) of the Transitional Administrative Law (the country's interim charter), stipulate that the constitution will be rejected if a majority of voters or two-thirds of registered voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote against it. This provision was inserted specifically to assuage Sunni concerns that they would have no means of rejecting the charter, but it also gave them essentially no margin for error. With some Sunnis set to support the draft, some to oppose it and some to abstain from voting, Sunnis opposed to the draft will be unable to assemble the necessary coalition to defeat it.

The day of the referendum will not be free from violence, but no major attacks are likely. During January's parliamentary elections, increased U.S. troop numbers and security around the country that included measures to limit vehicle traffic -- and therefore potential car bombings -- proved to be effective. Since jihadists in Iraq are weaker now than they were then, and since some Sunnis support the constitution, circumstances now are even less conducive to jihadists' attacks than they were in January.

The Oct. 12 agreement essentially postponed key questions left unanswered by negotiations over the constitution. It again ensures, however, that Sunni groups will have an opportunity to influence the document by establishing a four-month review and amendment period to follow Dec. 15 parliamentary elections that would end with another vote. While the Oct. 15 hurdle will likely be surpassed without difficulty, the arduous process of negotiating and voting is by no means over.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com