Iraq: Security Challenges after the U.S. Withdrawal

The U.S. Directorate of National Intelligence on Oct. 11 released the full text of an 11-page letter purportedly from al Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to al Qaeda in Iraq commander Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In the letter, al-Zawahiri praises his deputy for his "heroic acts" in defense of Islam and Muslims, and urges him to continue in the struggle. Mainly, however, the letter focuses on guiding the future strategic direction of the fight in Iraq, especially after U.S. and coalition military forces depart -- which al-Zawahiri says he believes will come soon. The letter goes on to say that the network has political objectives in Iraq, namely the destruction of the coalition-instituted government and its replacement with al Qaeda leaders.

Many jihadist groups and their sympathizers strongly resent the presence of foreign military troops in the sacred territory of Iraq, which holds strong historical and religious significance within Islam. That said, however, the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Iraq -- and we expect a major drawdown beginning early in 2006 -- will not bring an end to the violence or to the jihadist movement within the country. On the contrary, al-Zawahiri's message indicates his belief that the withdrawal of foreign troops will present al Qaeda and its affiliates with a good opportunity to gain greater control over the country. As the political process develops, the potential for violence against both Iraqi targets and Western businesses attempting to establish operations inside the country will not decrease. Additionally, any businesses, humanitarian organizations or non-governmental organizations that are thought to be aiding or supporting that government will be viewed as legitimate targets for attack.

The development of modern infrastructure and a capable security presence in Iraq has required the presence of a large number of foreign businesses -- ones that will remain long after coalition troops relinquish control over the country. Multinational corporations working with the newly formed Iraqi government and establishing private business operations must be prepared for the troop departure. Beyond supplying basic security services, the troops also are providing security for such things as bridges, pipelines and government buildings. Though Iraqi security forces are training to fulfill such roles, they can progress only so far so fast. Even the most highly trained and effective security forces in the world, including Delta Force and SEAL teams, have fallen victim to militant attacks.

Foreign military facilities, convoys and air transports all have come under attack by insurgents and jihadists. Although Iraq offers no shortage of potential targets, the withdrawal of U.S. troops will eliminate one major target set -- meaning the nationalists and the jihadists will have to aim their weapons elsewhere. Corporations and contractors operating inside the country, then, likely will face additional security challenges. Even if foreign firms and workers avoid being in the direct line of fire, attacks against critical infrastructure such as electricity substations, bridges, oil pipelines, hospitals, and aircraft will negatively impact their operations. These foreign companies also could see collateral damage to facilities and products.

Although the number of contractors and businesspeople killed in Iraq has fallen in recent months, the country remains a dangerous place for all parties involved. Just as al Qaeda and the jihadists are planning for the next step in the process, individuals and businesses operating in the country must also be ready to confront the new challenges the withdrawal will pose.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com