Kuwait: Infighting Over Succession to the Throne

Summary

A schism is under way in Kuwait's ruling circles, where Emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah and his allies are trying to contain the rise of Sheikh Salem al-Ali al-Sabah, a rival claimant to power. Salem, as the No. 4 man in the country, is trying to advance himself, his immediate family and his clan within the ruling hierarchy in the tiny but oil-rich Persian Gulf monarchy. This tussle could have a destabilizing effect on Kuwait's political system, which -- given the aging leadership and gradual democratization that is under way -- faces an approaching transition.

Analysis

Kuwait's official news agency KUNA reported late Oct. 10 that the aging and ailing Emir Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah met with Speaker of the Parliament Jassem Mohammed al-Kharafi and told him to tell the legislature that he had complete trust in Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah's ability to govern the country. The emir particularly noted Sabah's efforts in dispensing with the affairs that dealt with Kuwait's "interest, security and stability." Kuwait's Crown Prince Sheikh Saad Abdullah al-Sabah reportedly did not attend the meeting.

The same day, the liberal Arabic-language Kuwaiti daily al-Qabas published remarks from Sheikh Salem al-Ali al-Sabah, fourth in line to the throne and commander of Kuwait's National Guard, in which he called for the formation of a triumvirate collective leadership committee to aid the 79-year-old emir and the crown prince (both of whom are being treated for illnesses) in governing the emirate. Salem said the committee should include him, Sabah and leading family member Sheikh Mubarak Abdullah al-Ahmed al-Sabah.

Since health conditions prevent Jaber and Saad from dealing with such matters, Sabah likely was the one who initiated the move to have the emir publicly address Salem's moves, as Sabah viewed the triumvirate proposition as a direct challenge to his authority. Salem and his faction are in fact angling in anticipation that the emir or crown prince -- or both -- will be replaced because of their illnesses. Salem thinks he has a chance to elevate his position, given that he heads the Kuwaiti National Guard. His call for collective leadership might also be an attempt at getting the opposition on his side, given that Arab notions of democracy are big on the concept of Shurah (consultation) among different factions. In other words, Salem is signaling the political opposition in parliament that he is the lone democrat within the monarchical system who can be their ally if they became his.

Salem's rival Sabah is probably the most powerful leader in the family, especially after the July 2003 government decision to separate the crown prince and prime ministerial positions, and he likely will win in this power struggle. The conflict could affect the country's political system, however, because of an impending leadership transition and gradual moves toward democratic political reform. For example, the bickering could complicate the process of passing the Northern Oil Fields-Project Kuwait in parliament later in October. A few weeks ago, the opposition bloc in the parliament tried to challenge the ruling family's authority when it said Project Kuwait should be subject to parliamentary approval, even though the opposition is not against Project Kuwait, per se. If Salem's move makes the ruling family appear to be weakened, the opposition in parliament will use the situation to gain more power for itself, and the opposition could cooperate with Salem.

Leadership generally has oscillated between the two key branches of the al-Sabah family, which has ruled the emirate since its emergence more than 250 years ago -- the al-Salem branch and the al-Ahmed branch. The current emir is from the al-Ahmed branch, but the two emirs before him were from the al-Salem branch. Saad, the crown prince, is from the al-Salem branch, but he is not likely to become emir due to his health, and the next in line to the throne -- Sabah -- is an al-Ahmed. Salem, now the eldest member of the al-Sabah family, is an al-Salem. He is in better health than either the emir or the crown prince, and he has been less than rewarded for his position as the eldest. His son holds a mediocre post as head of the Public Authority for Agriculture and Fish Resources. It is possible that Salem has joined forces with another relatively disenfranchised member of the ruling family -- Sheikh Mubarak al-Abdullah, the son of an ex-deputy emir who was pushed aside and sent to Cairo -- so that both of them can try to move closer to the top ranks of power.

In the past, Kuwait's ruling establishment sought U.S. help when it was temporarily dethroned after Saddam Hussein's Iraq ousted the regime in 1990. Since the United States sees Kuwait as a vital logistics hub -- the country hosts military installations, serves as a route for U.S. and coalition troops moving into and out of Iraq and also is where U.S. troops train in urban combat before moving into Iraq -- should the current power struggle get out of hand, this is a card the Kuwaiti political establishment could play again.

Any kind of political instability in Kuwait immediately raises questions about effects on global oil prices, given that the country is the fifth-largest producer in the world (with an output of 2.7 million barrels per day). Kuwait's political elites, however, know full well that the country's economy depends entirely on the oil industry and the foreign workers and firms that help keep it operational. They therefore have no interest in slaying the golden goose by causing nationwide economic instability to compound any internal political turmoil while they resolve the infighting. Therefore, the oil industry is not likely to become a victim of palace intrigue, and any new Kuwaiti leadership probably would not tinker with the country's oil industry upon assuming power.