Pakistan: The Earthquake's Political Aftershocks

Summary

The disputed region of Kashmir has been transformed into a scene of devastation and helplessness as the death toll from a massive earthquake surpassed 40,000 on Oct. 10. The earthquake aftermath heralds significant challenges for Indian-Pakistani relations and for Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's ability to tame domestic dissatisfaction with slow relief efforts. On a strategic level, the natural disaster has the potential to aid U.S. intelligence operations in the affected region and hamper Kashmir-based militants' capabilities.

Analysis

More than 40,000 people were reported dead Oct. 10 after a 7.6-magnitude earthquake struck the South Asian subcontinent Oct. 8. The most hard-hit areas were in Kashmir and Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), where entire villages and cities have been swallowed in debris.

A common crisis could strengthen relations between rival countries India and Pakistan, which already are on the path toward normalization. Both sides, however, will proceed cautiously in the earthquake's aftermath to avoid losing ground politically on the Kashmir dispute. National relief efforts are generally carried out by a country's military personnel. For this reason, it is no wonder that Pakistan would be wary of India's rapid response to Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's urgent call for assistance from international donors. Although Pakistan would welcome aid in the form of supplies airlifted from India, it is not too keen on the idea of Indian troops crossing over onto Pakistani soil.

The highly contentious Line of Control (LoC) that separates Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir is a cease-fire line and not a clearly demarcated international border -- a further complication for New Delhi and Islamabad, whose troops and military installments along the LoC have been severely disrupted. Final status talks on resolving the Kashmir dispute are still a long way off, but Pakistan has long rejected an Indian proposal to make the LoC a permanent border, favoring a redrawn border that would give Pakistan control over additional Muslim majority areas currently under Indian control. India categorically opposes this idea. The earthquake has produced a highly unsettling effect on the current political arrangement, but India and Pakistan will try to prevent each other from taking advantage of the situation to encroach on each other's territory.

Discontent with the government response to the earthquake will lead to more public dissatisfaction with Musharraf's government -- a development that could spell trouble for the country's military ruler. The earthquake is essentially Musharraf's Hurricane Katrina, in terms of the amount of domestic dissent produced by a national tragedy. That said, the absence of any viable political opposition force that can take this situation and leverage it in its favor will allow Musharraf the breathing space he needs to get over this hurdle. Musharraf's political allies routed opposition forces -- both secular and Islamist -- in the recently held local elections. There could be truth to opposition allegations that the government's victory in these elections was due to rigging and disingenuous pre-poll electoral engineering -- but the fact that the opposition has not been able to do anything about the allegations speaks volumes about its impotency. Most Pakistanis view Musharraf's regime as the best the country has, and do not wish to tamper with the status quo. Furthermore, given the sensitivity of the humanitarian cost, no political group would want to be seen trying to use the situation to rack up political mileage.

There are strong indications that the earthquake has severely hampered Kashmir-based militant groups' capabilities. Jamaat-ud-Dawa, a derivative of outlawed militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, reported Oct. 9 that the organization's mosques, hospitals and Islamic seminaries had been wiped out by the earthquake.

Of extreme geopolitical significance is the possibility that this natural disaster has taken out key members of the al Qaeda apex believed to be hiding out in Pakistan's NWFP. U.S. intelligence forces in the country might also be able to use the relief effort as a way to expand their intelligence-gathering in ongoing joint operations with Pakistani troops against al Qaeda strongholds.

The October earthquake marks the third geopolitically significant natural disaster in less than a year, after the December 2004 tsunami and Hurricane Katrina. Already under pressure from Washington to take the reins in rooting out al Qaeda, Musharraf now faces the litmus test of holding his ground on Kashmir and taming internal dissent in the aftermath of the earthquake.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com