Saudi Arabia: Tensions Rise with Iran over Iraq

Summary

Saudi officials announced Oct. 5 that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had canceled his scheduled visit to Riyadh following Saudi accusations of interference in Iraq. The postponement indicates the Saudi government's growing concern over Shiite-led Iranian influence in the region. Riyadh has criticized what it perceives as a soft U.S. policy toward Tehran, the Iraqi Constitution and the Shiite domination of Iraq.

Analysis

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Oct. 5 canceled a scheduled visit to Riyadh after the Saudi government accused him of interfering in Iraq. The cancellation points to rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, given Saudi concerns that Iran will gain disproportionate influence over Iraq. The Saudi government recently voiced concern over the possibility of a strong sectarian-based alliance between Shiite Iran and a Shiite-dominated Iraqi government that could emerge from the ongoing Iraqi political process.

Recent tensions concerning Iraq's draft constitution, Washington's reluctance to get tough with Tehran over the nuclear-weapons issue and British accusations against the Iranian military threaten to destabilize relations among Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The United States, which -- because of the problems faced by President George W. Bush on the home front -- has only limited bandwidth to deal with additional problems in the region, likely will be forced to continue with its current policies and focus on stabilizing a new Iraqi government as a means to get out of the current impasse. Washington will take minor and cosmetic steps to placate the jittery Saudis.

Mottaki's decision to forego his visit to Saudi Arabia was a response to accusations from Saudi Prince Saud al-Faisal that Iran was interfering in Iraq by means of people, money, weapons and politically related events. The Saudi government is becoming more vocal about its anxiety that a Shiite-led Iraqi government is poised to come to power after a permanent government takes over after the Dec. 15 general elections.

In efforts to keep Iran from becoming bolder in its geopolitical calculations, the Saudi government recently criticized the U.S. policy toward Iraq as being short-sighted at the expense of Iraq's Sunni population. In a Sept. 21 statement to the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, Prince Saud accused Washington of essentially handing Iraq over to Iran. The U.S. failure to get Iran referred to the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) at last month's International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting, Washington's eagerness to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Iraq and the Bush administration's reliance on Tehran to stabilize Baghdad are issues that reinforce the Saudi view that that Iran is on its way to becoming a regional powerhouse. Saudi Arabia is concerned that Iran, allied with a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq, would pose a security threat to the entire Persian Gulf region, which contains a significant Shiite population -- especially in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province -- that could be used as a fifth column against Sunni governments in the region.

Saudi-Iranian relations also took a blow when Iraq's Interior Minister Bayan Jabor referred to the Saudi foreign minister as "some Bedouin riding a camel." This was a reaction to Prince Saud's remarks about Iraq falling into Iran's orbit. Riyadh knows that Jabor's comments reflect Tehran's position on the issue, given that the interior minister is a ranking member of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq -- the most pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite group, which also holds the leadership of the Shiite Islamist ruling coalition, the United Iraqi Alliance.

The Saudi regime also understands there is little it can do to contain Iran. Therefore, Riyadh is trying to gain U.S. attention through its statements on Iraq, sending the message to Washington that in its efforts to stabilize Iraq it is allowing Iran to threaten Saudi Arabia -- and, in turn, U.S. and global oil supplies.

Adding to tensions in the region, on Oct. 5 the British government accused Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of providing Lebanese Hezbollah technology to Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army for use against coalition forces in southern Iraq. Iran denied the charges, but the accusation itself is a statement about Iran's ability to interfere with Iraq's political situation and probably will trigger further Saudi concerns.

The Bush administration's recent weaknesses, exposed by the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina and the U.S. failure to send Iran to the UNSC, show a diminished ability to manage conflicts outside of the immediate interest in a stable Iraq and the future drawdown of U.S. forces. This indicates a more low-key U.S. stance against Tehran, for now, and a softening of U.S. aggression in monitoring Iran's influence in Iraq. The United States is not as worried about Iran at the moment as it is about Riyadh's concerns, which could have an unsettling effect in the region. Therefore, Washington will move to allay the Saudi jitters.

The possibility of an Iran-Iraq Shia alliance in the Middle East is a grave concern for the Sunni-Wahhabi Saudi nation. Riyadh will not do anything by itself but is trying to get Washington to contain Iran. The United States has too much of a vested interest in the success of the newly formed Iraqi government to jeopardize its future by aggravating Tehran further. The Bush administration will likely try to placate the Saudis through talks and issuance of measured warnings to Iran not to upset the process of stabilization in Iraq.

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