European Union: Stringing Turkey Along for Geopolitics

Summary

Negotiations leading up to the planned Oct. 3 talks on Turkey's membership in the European Union have stalled over Austria's insistence that Turkey be offered a special partnership rather than full EU membership. In fact, the EU has many reasons for not wanting Turkey as a member -- but does not want to alienate the Turks.

Analysis

The planned Oct. 3 start of negotiations for Turkey's entry into the European Union has hit yet another roadblock, this time over Austria's insistence that Turkey be offered a special partnership rather than full membership. Turkey repeatedly has said it will settle for nothing less than full membership, and Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul has threatened to skip the meeting if a finished negotiating framework is not presented.

Though Austria's position might seem obstructionist, Vienna is expressing the same opinion as other EU members -- but doing it openly instead of feigning commitment to the process. For many reasons, these negotiations will never result in an offer of full membership to Turkey:

1) It is a Muslim country. Islam phobia currently is strong in countries such as the Netherlands, France and Germany, which are experiencing a strong popular backlash against their large Muslim communities. Several countries have tightened their immigration laws in response to citizen demands to slow the growth of their Muslim populations. It is unlikely, then, that they would be willing to welcome a Muslim country into their bloc, where it would have a significant voice in the way the Union is governed.

2) It is too big. With 70 million people, Turkey would be the second-largest EU member after Germany. Within a decade -- due to the high growth -- Turkey would become the Union's largest member, giving Turkey the largest delegation in the EU Parliament and a powerful voice in the bloc's future. Europeans do not trust Turkey enough to give it this level of power.

3) It is agrarian. The European Union supports some of the most generous agricultural subsidy regimes in the world in the form of the Common Agricultural Policy. The high payouts that farmers enjoy likely will be reduced when the EU budget is renegotiated in 2006, but at current levels, 46 percent of its budget is spent on subsidizing agriculture. Even considering agriculture's importance for many new EU members in central and Eastern Europe, no country is as agrarian as Turkey, where agriculture accounts for 36 percent of employment. Farmers across the EU will rise up in protest before they see a large proportion of their subsidies diverted to Turkey.

4) It is poor. Turkey's gross domestic product per capita is only 27 percent of the national average. This would make Turkey the poorest member of the Union -- excluding EU hopefuls Romania and Bulgaria. Turkey would receive the largest proportion of EU economic development benefits designed to bring poorer regions up to the Union average, taking money that previously went to other member states. Many EU states want to block Turkey's membership bid in an effort to retain the large sums of money they now receive, while others want to avoid throwing large sums of money into what they see as a money pit.

5) It is unpopular. For strategic reasons, some governments might possibly support Turkey's membership bid. With Turkey as an EU member, for example, a federal system in Europe would be out of the question, meaning London would achieve its goal of blocking such a system. Paris would support the bid because Turkish membership would turn Europe into an expansive and powerful force. The problem is, European citizens strongly oppose such a move. A poll by Eurobarometer revealed that only 35 percent of Europeans support Turkey as an EU hopeful. Several countries already have promised to hold referendums if the issue ever comes up for a vote -- an unlikely possibility considering that negotiations are projected to last 10 years at least. Recent polls have revealed that opposition to Turkey's membership is as high as 70 percent to 80 percent in France and Austria. Only one veto is needed to block Turkey from being allowed to enter the Union -- and several countries are poised to vote Turkey down in referendums.

6) It has enemies. Turkey will face two historical enemies within the bloc: Greece and Cyprus. Greece has recently taken a much softer approach toward relations with Turkey, but Cyprus has shown several times during recent negotiations over the declaration and negotiation framework that it is willing to make the membership process as difficult as possible.

Given all of these reasons, Turkey has little hope of ever joining the European Union. The EU so far has appeared to support Turkey's membership bid in order to maintain good relations with its large neighbor to the east. Turkey sits precariously close to much of the turmoil in the Middle East and the EU wants to do everything it can to keep the country from tilting toward the Islamist extremism that is prevalent in many of its neighboring countries. Europe is afraid if it totally shuts the door on Turkey, the country will start to identify with its Middle Eastern neighbors instead of the West.

The outcome of these negotiations is clear: Turkey will not receive full membership. The real issue, then, is whether the Union will be able to tell Turkey how it really feels without alienating the Turks.

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