STRATFOR has received indications from sources in the region that the Jan. 19 assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh may be linked to a growing struggle between Hamas’ two main patrons: Iran and Syria. As Syria quietly negotiates with Israel and the United States and presents the possibility of distancing itself from the Iranian orbit, dissension within Iranian and Syrian proxies is expected. Hamas’ external leadership has been under Syria’s wing for some time, but as it develops a growing alliance with Iran, elements more aligned with Syria, we are told, may have given Al-Mabhouh up.

Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist militia ruling Gaza, moved its core leadership to Damascus in 2000 after being kicked out of Amman, Jordan. Syria has served as a protector of the Damascus-based central leadership, led by Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal, who are exiled from the Palestinian Territories. However, to progress with backchannel negotiations with Israel and the United States, Syria will have to contain its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, and possibly even sell them out. Iran, on the other hand, has an incentive to bolster those organizations as the threat of war looms in the Persian Gulf . While a Persian-Arab and Sunni-Shiite divide exists (partially explaining why some Hamas leaders favor Damascus), the Iranian regime and Hamas have crossed the ethno-sectarian divide to align with one another.

After Syria entered these backchannel negotiations, elements of Hamas leadership began to hedge with Iran. Hamas is now being pulled in both directions, as Iran and Syria try either to improve their links with the group or coerce it into their control.

Hamas leadership, the Majlis Shura (or Politburo), is based in Damascus and made up of many different leaders, including those in Gaza. The group leadership process and divisions are opaque, but there is bound to be an internal struggle between those that favor closer ties with Tehran and those that are closer to Damascus, given that tensions are growing over the latter’s diplomatic overtures toward the United States and Israel. However, the debate over which Middle Eastern protector with which to side likely is more pronounced among the Damascus-based leadership than those inside Gaza.

STRATFOR sources in the Levant say the pro-Damascus elements gave up intelligence on Al-Mabhouh’s travel plans to Dubai and then onto Tehran for an arms deal. The information allegedly was passed to Egyptian intelligence, which also has an interest in containing Hamas. Cairo then passed that onto another agency — likely Israel’s Mossad — which then carried out the assassination. Sources also said al-Mabhouh was involved in an alleged Iranian plot to neutralize Damascus-friendly Hamas officials in Gaza.

STRATFOR cannot confirm this information, but we do know the Iran-Syria relationship is under serious strain, and this assassination could be one skirmish within that disagreement.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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