An improvised explosive device exploded at a German bakery in Pune, India, at about 7:30 p.m. local time Feb. 13. While no militant group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, it bears a remarkable similarity to attacks that were commonplace throughout India before the more spectacular commando-style attack that targeted Mumbai in November 2008. Though conflicting reports have emerged on the sequence of events before the bomb detonated, the bakery, known to be frequented by foreigners, likely presented an appealing soft target for whatever individual or group wanted it hit.

Analysis

At approximately 7:30 p.m. local time on Feb. 13, an improvised explosive device detonated at a German bakery in Pune, India. Conflicting reports have emerged on the sequence of events, and while no militant group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it is similar to the type that occurred with frequency before the commando-style Mumbai attack, and the bakery may have been targeted because it was known to be frequented by foreigners.

According to reports citing an employee of the bakery, a woman driving an auto-rickshaw handed the employee a backpack believed to contain the explosives responsible for the blast. However, an earlier story said that a customer placed a bag in the restaurant, and that the backpack was left unclaimed and detonated when a waiter opened it. The explosive material was reportedly RDX, a military-grade explosive, mixed with ammonium nitrate. Both materials are relatively easy to acquire and are commonly used in attacks in India. The fact that some reports indicate the device detonated as the backpack was opened suggests the bag was rigged to detonate upon being opened. However, due to conflicting information emerging about the incident, a timed device cannot be ruled out.

The bakery, located just east of central Pune (approximately 100 miles southeast of Mumbai) in a neighborhood called Koregaon Park, was adjacent to Osho Ashram, a Hindu spiritual meditation center that draws in many foreign tourists. The bakery was also near many hotels that housed visitors to Osho Ashram. Other sites known to attract foreign visitors are also nearby, including a Chabad House, or Jewish cultural center, which was across the street from the bakery. (A Chabad House in Mumbai was targeted in the November 2008 militant attacks in that city.)

The bakery was popular with foreign tourists, and the timing of the attack (Saturday evening) corresponded with peak business hours, when the restaurant would be bustling with people. This would make it less likely for suspicious activity to be noticed, and also provide a target-rich environment ; the restaurant was only some 344 square feet in size and was packed with nearly 70 people at the time of the blast.

The latest reports indicate that nine people were killed in the incident, including the waiter who reportedly opened the bag, and as many as 60 were wounded. Contrary to earlier reports saying that most of those killed were foreigners, it appears that most of the casualties were Indians, with possibly only two foreigners (an Iranian biology student and an Italian woman) killed in the attack and 12 other foreigners injured. It is unclear how many foreigners were in the restaurant at the time, but since the restaurant was known to be a gathering place for foreigners (also as a place to buy drugs, according to one report), whoever was behind the attack could have been targeting foreigners. Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram said that David Headley, a U.S. citizen who was arrested in 2009 for his alleged links to the 2008 Mumbai attacks, had surveilled targets around the bakery during his trip prior to the 2008 attacks and during a March 2009 trip to Pune.

Leading up to the 2008 Mumbai attacks, several Indian cities, including New Delhi, Bangalore and Ahmedabad, were the targets of serial bombings. The attacks involved multiple explosive devices detonating in short sequence in various locations around the cities, with crowded marketplaces and religious sites being very popular targets. These attacks occurred frequently across India, but quickly tapered off after the very different commando-style attack in Mumbai. Yesterday’s attack was the first significant bombing in India since Mumbai, but it was a fairly simple operation and involved only a single explosive device.

Indigenous Islamic groups such as the Indian Mujihadeen claimed responsibility for the attacks leading up to Mumbai, for which the Pakistani-based Islamist group Lashkar-e-Taiba is believed to be responsible. No group has yet claimed responsible for the Pune attack, but indigenous Islamist groups certainly cannot be ruled out.

Indian authorities, which have been at an elevated state of alert since the 2008 attacks, recently have issued warnings of possible attacks against religious sites around India. Chidambaram indicated that security had been stepped up at the nearby Chabad House and the Koregaon Park neighborhood of Pune in October 2009. With heightened security, it is more difficult to successfully carry out complex, multi-target attacks such as those of the recent past. However, an attack like the one against the German bakery in Pune, involving fewer people and fewer targets, would require less preparation time and communications and likely attract less attention from Indian authorities, and thus have a far higher chance of succeeding.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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