Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking to a crowd celebrating the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, announced Feb. 11 that Iran had successfully enriched uranium to 20 percent and that it was capable of enriching to 80 percent. This follows an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) statement Feb. 10 (after Iran notified the agency of its intentions) that the recalibration of centrifuges at the centrifuge hall at Natanz, which started at the beginning of the week, were announced too late and done before its inspectors could adjust their safeguard procedures at the facility accordingly.

Iran has claimed that its enrichment efforts to the 20-percent level are intended to produce fuel for a research reactor to make radioisotopes for medical purposes, and Ahmadinejad was explicit in his announcement that the country had no intention of actually enriching to 80 percent or pursuing nuclear weapons.

According to the IAEA, only one cascade of 164 centrifuges at Natanz has been recalibrated for the enrichment of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) feedstock to 20 percent — most of the cascades are calibrated for enriching to only 3.5 percent. But with a number of cascades at Natanz currently offline and the fact that the facility likely has several generations of cascades of varying quality, it is difficult to say how quickly that effort might be expanded.

While the level of enrichment Ahmadinejad claims cannot yet be verified, Iran has been working concertedly and diligently for years to establish and improve its enrichment capabilities. Though Tehran continues to face significant challenges, including issues with the quality of its centrifuges, progress in its enrichment efforts is also to be expected.

However, there is cause to be a bit more skeptical of the 80 percent claim. The nuclear weapon the United States used against Hiroshima in 1945, “Little Boy,” used uranium enriched to 80 percent. If Iran can indeed enrich to 80 percent, then it has overcome the only major obstacle to creating a crude, gun-type nuclear device. As Iran’s centrifuge technology improves, the challenge of closing the gap between 20 percent and 80 percent enrichment is reduced, but this is not an entirely straightforward step. As enrichment levels increase, the centrifuges in a cascade need to be capable of increasingly minute calibrations. Issues of quality assurance come into play, and it is not clear that Iran yet has centrifuges of sufficient quality to back up Ahmadinejad’s claim.

What is clear is that Iran is making a significant national investment in its centrifuges, and beyond Iran’s inherent challenges with enrichment, there is nothing preventing Iran from reaching this goal eventually.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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