Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will lead a delegation of Turkish officials to Iran on Oct. 26 for a two-day visit. Erdogan is also slated to visit the United States to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama. The prime minister's travels are linked to Turkey's desire to mediate between the United States and Iran in order to prevent another Middle Eastern conflict from interfering with Ankara's plans to expand its influence.

Analysis

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will fly to Tehran the evening of Oct. 26 for a two-day visit. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz and State Minister for Foreign Trade Zafer Caglayan will be accompanying Erdogan. While in Iran, the Turkish delegation will meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. ?

The Turks are dropping in at a critical time for the Iranians, who are trying to work their way around another set of nuclear negotiations with the West. Iran thus far is giving the impression that it is not taking the talks -- or the threats from Israel and the United States involving sanctions or military action if the talks fail -- as seriously as the West would like. While Tehran relies on its old stalling tactics to stretch the negotiations out, Israel is waiting impatiently for this diplomatic phase to play out before it ratchets up pressure again on the United States to take more decisive action against Iran.

Turkey sees the potential for these negotiations to crash and burn, and has very little interest in seeing a military confrontation between the United States and Iran in its backyard. Turkey, after all, is on a resurgent path, ready to fill the United States' shoes in Iraq and the wider region with an array of energy deals and political pacts. The last thing Ankara needs is for another Middle Eastern conflagration to slow down its plans for expansion.

So, in hopes of staving off a crisis in the Persian Gulf, Turkey is on a mission to mediate between Iran and the United States. Erdogan's visit to Tehran is taking place prior to his trip to Washington, D.C., to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama. The invitation to the United States was extended for Oct. 29, but according to Erdogan's press office, the trip to the White House has been postponed until Dec. 7.

Turkey is trying to prove its worth in shuttle diplomacy, but it remains unclear whether Ankara will be able to make much difference in the negotiations between Tehran and the West. Iran has made it clear in the talks thus far that it has little intention of compromising on its nuclear program. Iran is also highly distrustful of the Turks, given their close alliance with the United States and the potential for Turkish airspace to be used in a military strike on Iran. At the end of the day, Turkey and Iran are natural competitors and Iran understands that Turkey will always hold the upper hand in that competition.

Turkey has thus attempted to assuage Iran's concerns with supportive rhetoric. In an interview with the Guardian, Erdogan asserted that Iran is Turkey's friend, strongly refuted Western accusations that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon and said that he would not even think of bringing up Iran's postelection crisis in his meetings since that would constitute unnecessary meddling in Iran's internal affairs. Just before his trip to Iran, Erdogan has spent some time in Pakistan negotiating with the military and government there on behalf of Iran to pacify tensions between Tehran and Islamabad over a recent attack by Baloch militant group Jundallah that targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders near the Pakistani border. Turkey has also gone the extra mile in publicly criticizing Israel over its military actions against Hamas in Gaza -- not only to shore up its influence among the Muslim masses, but also to show Tehran that it can trust Ankara to stand up to Israel, especially when it comes to potential military action against Iran.

The Iranians are still being cautious around the Turks, but are willing to see what else Turkey has to offer during this visit. Iran will especially want to see whether Turkey commits to a $3.5 billion deal signed back in July 2007 for Turkish Petroleum Corp. to produce 20.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from three development phases of Iran's South Pars natural gas field. Given the political tensions surrounding Iran, South Pars development has been delayed and Iran is desperate to demonstrate that there are investors willing to shun sanctions and put their money into Iran's energy sector. The Turkish energy minister is expected to discuss this deal during this visit, but it remains to be seen whether Ankara will be willing to defy the United States and move forward with the deal. The United States is already wary of Turkey's alienating moves toward Israel and its friendly gestures toward Russia, and is still trying to determine how much it can trust Erdogan's government to support U.S. objectives in the region.

Turkey has a tough balancing act ahead, but will use this visit to Tehran to soften up the Iranians in the nuclear negotiations and attempt to insert itself as a prime mediator in the dispute. STRATFOR will be watching closely to see how far Turkey actually gets in this initiative.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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