The issue of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's health is raising serious questions within the Iranian leadership about his successor, according to STRATFOR's Iranian sources.

Recent rumors that Khamenei fell into a coma and was rushed to a private clinic in Tehran for emergency treatment appear to have been unfounded, given that the supreme leader appeared in Tehran on Oct. 17 with Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade. Even so, Khamenei's health did deteriorate seriously (something amplified in the media) before his meeting with Wade, meaning quiet preparations are under way for a post-Khamenei Iran.

After missing his regularly scheduled appearance at his personal Hosseinieh (mosque) Oct. 14, Khamenei reportedly showed up there Oct. 21 to give a speech to a group of devout female supporters. According to a STRATFOR source, Khamenei appeared visibly ill at the event, his lips were purple and he had artificial red powder on his cheeks. Khamenei, who is now 70 years old and is thought to suffer from leukemia, has doctors, medical equipment and a personal makeup artist at his private compound in Tehran.

STRATFOR sources report that members within Khamenei's camp are considering succession contingencies for as soon as three or four months from now. The Assembly of Experts (AoE) – Iran's most powerful political institution, which has an 86-member body of popularly elected clerics – has the power to appoint a new supreme leader or to replace him if the current leader is deemed unfit to fulfill his duties.

Just who will succeed Khamenei remains unclear, however, though former judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi and Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, have been mentioned as possibilities. The 61-year-old Shahroudi was a student of Iraqi cleric Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Sadr, and remains a close confidant of the supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of the supreme leader, and carries substantial clout over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He has been an ardent supporter of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and played a quiet, though instrumental, role in the Basij militia crackdowns against protesters in the wake of the June elections.

As head of the Expediency Council and the AoE, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has enormous influence within the clerical establishment and has long been considered a potential successor to Khamenei. But since the volatile June election, Rafsanjani has suffered significant setbacks. Though he remains a key player within the regime, and is being used by Khamenei to counter Ahmadinejad's influence, he may be too controversial a candidate now to be taken seriously for the position of supreme leader.

Given the significance of reports of the supreme leader's ill health, STRATFOR will continue to monitor the situation closely.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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