Abu Yahya al-Libi, one of al Qaeda’s top leaders, has called for Xinjiang Uighurs and other Muslims to wage a holy war against China. In the wake of serious setbacks to the Islamist movement in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, al-Libi’s call to arms is likely meant to reawaken a Uighur militant front in China and Central Asia with connections to al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Analysis

In a video posted Oct. 7 on an Islamist Web site, al Qaeda ideologue Abu Yahya al-Libi called on Xinjiang Uighurs to prepare for a holy war against an “oppressive” China and called on fellow Muslims to offer their support. Although al-Libi is a major religious authority and one of the top five leaders of al Qaeda, his threats have rarely materialized. Indeed, there has been little direct correlation between video and audio messages of top al Qaeda leaders and subsequent actions by militants.

But al-Libi’s statement may reflect an attempt already under way by al Qaeda to spread the franchise back into Central Asia and China. Al-Libi is an influential member of al Qaeda in Pakistan and is known for his ability to influence a younger generation of Muslims to embrace Salafism, a fundamentalist Islamic movement.

Several factors indicate that al-Libi’s video was likely an attempt to revitalize a burgeoning Uighur militancy with links to Central and Southern Asia; the movement combines Taliban training with jihadist teachings.

A notable example of the link between Central Asian Islamist movements and those in Pakistan and Afghanistan can be found in an alleged connection between the Islamic Party of Turkistan (IPT), which threatened attacks on the Beijing Olympics, and al Qaeda cleric Sheikh ’Isa, also known as Abd al-Hakim Hassan. IPT reportedly hosted Isa’s Web site, and Isa apparently has considerable influence over certain Taliban elements in Pakistan.

Al-Libi issued his call to arms after Central Asian militant movements had suffered some significant setbacks, including the deaths of two major leaders: top Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, who was killed on Aug. 5, and Tahir Yuldashev, chief of the main Central Asian jihadist group, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), who was killed on Aug. 27 during major Pakistan and U.S. offensives in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have also cracked down on militant movements, making al-Libi’s call to arms a timely attempt to breathe life back into a regional militant movement in China.

Chinese Uighurs are by no means unified, and most of them are unwilling to take up arms against the Chinese government. When they have done so in the past, China has cracked down quickly and with overwhelming force, as we saw in August 2008 and July 2009. Moreover, Chinese Uighurs enjoy a significantly higher quality of life in China than Uighurs in neighboring countries, and this has taken some of the wind out of the sails of China’s Islamist movement. China’s impressive show of force in its security preparations for National Day also reinforced its intentions to quickly quash any dissent.

Little doubt remains that China is closely watching and trying to prevent the resurgence of Central Asian or Uighur militancy, especially with any connection to al Qaeda or IMU. As part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China is working aggressively with Central Asian governments to combat Muslim militancy across the region, and the issue will likely come up when the SCO meets again on Oct. 15.

Al-Libi’s Oct. 7 video is getting a lot of attention, but the likelihood of it causing an Islamist uprising in Xinjiang is very low. The core leadership of al Qaeda does not have the ability to stir up any kind of insurgency in China without Uighur support. But the situation is worth watching as a weakened al Qaeda tries to spread its once-powerful franchise into Central Asia and China.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

Copyright © 2005 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 1999-2008 Lenanonwire^®.com. All rights reserved.