U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Iraq on July 28 to discuss an upcoming withdrawal of U.S. troops with senior U.S. military and Iraqi political officials. The time has come for Washington to take a serious look at what a post-occupation Iraq will look like, and Iran will be most interested in learning if a U.S. sale of F-16s to Baghdad is part of that vision.

Analysis

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates paid a visit to Iraq on July 28, where he is meeting with Gen. Ray Odierno, chief U.S. commander in Iraq, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Gates’ visit comes at a time when U.S. forces are pinning their hopes on having their Iraqi counterparts provide enough security in the war-torn country for the United States to scale down its presence and shift focus farther east to Afghanistan.

Gates will get a firsthand look at U.S. and Iraqi preparations for the long-anticipated U.S. troop withdrawal. Currently, there are about 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. The withdrawal plan calls for some 80,000 troops to leave between March and August 2010, leaving a residual force of 50,000 troops. The U.S.-Iraqi Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) stipulates that all U.S. troops are to withdraw by 2011, but the timeline carries some flexibility. Political tensions among Iraq’s rival factions will flare in the lead-up to the January 2010 parliamentary elections, and the potential for conflict — particularly between Kurds and Arabs in the north — remains high. The drawdown of U.S. forces from Iraq’s urban areas has also provided al Qaeda remnants in Iraq with some room to carry out attacks, making it even more imperative for the United States to continue backing Iraq’s former Sunni Baathist insurgents, whose support is crucial in limiting jihadist activity in Iraq. Even al-Maliki, who has been using the U.S. drawdown as political fodder in the lead-up to elections, has recently acknowledged that U.S. troops could stay beyond the 2011 deadline should the security situation warrant. The situation is still extremely delicate, to say the least.

Nonetheless, the time has come for the United States to take a serious look at what a post-occupation Iraq will look like. Part of this vision will naturally deal with the issue of Iraq’s defense posture. While in Iraq, Gates will be holding negotiations with Iraqi leaders over future U.S. military assistance to Baghdad, including the sale of multirole fighter aircraft. While in the past the United States was much more careful with floating the idea of selling F-16s to Iraq through various media leaks, U.S. defense officials are now exhibiting fewer qualms about publicly discussing the potential sale.

Much of this has to do with the current U.S. standoff with Iran. A major point of contention between the United States and Iran over Iraq throughout the years has centered on the issue of what kind of military hardware the United States will offer to the Iraqis, and whether such hardware would be offensive or defensive in nature. The Iraqis could use F-16s for internal security operations; but from Tehran’s point of view, these are offensive aircraft that could be used to threaten Iran down the road, especially in the event that Iran’s Shiite allies lose the upper hand in Baghdad. The last thing Iran wants is for Iraq to build up a shiny fleet of advanced aircraft when its own air defenses network is largely a hodgepodge of outdated and aging systems.

A U.S. F-16 deal to Iraq also sends a message to Tehran that, in spite of the withdrawal, the United States will retain a foothold in Baghdad for many years to come. From building maintenance facilities to training pilots and mechanics to supplying spare parts to developing ground control systems and defense capabilities, this is a sale that is emblematic of a long-term U.S.-Iraqi defense partnership.

Given the current logjam in U.S. negotiations with Iran, the F-16 discussion with Iraq is unlikely a coincidence. The U.S. administration is sending mixed signals to Tehran over the consequences of missing a September deadline to restart negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program. With the military option potentially in the cards, Iran already has ample reason to be nervous. By bringing up the F-16 sale again, Washington is signaling to Tehran that it intends on moving forward with its plans to get Iraq to stand on its own two feet. If the Iranians want a say in the process, the time to come to the negotiating table is now.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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