The United States has lifted an embargo on IT products and aviation industry goods to Syria, Syrian Ambassador to the United States Imad Mustafa announced July 27. The U.S. concession is part of a painstaking rapprochement between Washington and Damascus designed to undermine Iran’s leverage in the Levant.

Analysis

The United States government has lifted a ban on exporting IT products and aviation industry goods to Syria, Syrian Ambassador to the United States Imad Mustafa said July 27 on Syrian national television. Mustafa added that U.S. President Barack Obama is considering lifting more bans as his administration is expected to do a line-by-line re-evaluation of existing economic sanctions on Syria in order to improve relations between Damascus and Washington. Mustafa’s announcement came a day after U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell’s visit to Damascus for talks with Syrian President Bashar al Assad.

STRATFOR has been closely tracking the slow-going rapprochement between Syria and the United States. The Americans and the Saudis want to bring Syria back in from the diplomatic cold and into a network of U.S.-allied Arab regimes as a way to dilute Iran’s leverage in the Levant. In these negotiations, Syria is expected to distance itself from its allies in Tehran, contain Hezbollah and Hamas, and share intelligence on al Qaeda activity in the region. In return, Syria would regain diplomatic recognition, energize peace negotiations with Israel, bring in badly needed foreign investment, get a pass on the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and most importantly — reclaim Syrian hegemony in Lebanon.

Mitchell’s visit was evidently a success for the Syrians, but these negotiations will continue to be a trying process. The Syrians prefer to negotiate in piecemeal fashion, and cannot be expected to meet American demands in one fell swoop. Instead, Syria will continue to increase its demands while offering bits of cooperation every step of the way. The Saudis have played a major role in financing these talks, and Damascus is apparently pressing Riyadh for a lump sum of $14 billion to help smooth the negotiations and rebuild the Syrian economy.

The Americans and Saudis are growing impatient with Syria’s growing list of demands, but Damascus has made some tangible moves in these negotiations. The Syrian regime has long been sharing intelligence with the United States and Saudi Arabia on al Qaeda in Iraq and the surrounding region. And to the detriment of Syria’s relationship with Iran, the Syrians have already been laying the groundwork to corner Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The lifting of the embargo on the Syrian aviation industry is no small concession, either. Syria had earlier pinned its hopes on a major contract with European manufacturer Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, to revive Syrian Air. Syrian Air’s aging fleet of five Airbus A320s, one Boeing 747 and two small planes for domestic flights has been largely grounded under the pressure of sanctions. The Syrian deal with Airbus would have involved leasing the Airbus planes through a third party to skirt U.S. sanctions, but the contract apparently fell through when it became clear that EADS was not willing to quarrel with the U.S. Treasury Department over the Syrians. Now, the lifting of this U.S. embargo is just what Damascus needs to salvage its aviation industry.

Depending on how much the United States can rely on Syrian cooperation moving forward, the Syrians are expected to get more of a sanctions breather. The United States has a comprehensive sanctions regime against Syria, including the Syria Accountability Act of 2004, which bans the export of most goods to Syria that contain more than 10 percent U.S.-manufactured parts, a part of the USA Patriot Act that targets the Commercial Bank of Syria. Furthermore, Washington has several executive Orders that freeze the assets and restricts travel of Syrian citizens suspected of destabilizing Iraq and Lebanon, working with al Qaeda or the Taliban, or proliferating weapons of mass destruction.

By putting more energy into its talks with Syria, the United States hopes to signal to Iran the potential benefits of diplomatically engaging with Washington, while also making clear to Tehran that its alliance structure in the Levant to ensure its nuclear program is less reliable.

It is little wonder, then, that Washington has chosen to showcase its growing relationship with Damascus at the same time U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, accompanied by a number of defense, intelligence and diplomatic officials, is on a working visit to Israel to discuss all things Iran.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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