The chant “Death to Russia” joined the more typical “Death to America” chant at Friday prayers led by former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The slogan raises questions as to whether Russia has decided to elevate its assistance to Iran in a bid to influence U.S.-Russia negotiations.

Analysis

During July 17 Friday prayers led by former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential cleric, protesters in the crowd began chanting “Death to Russia” slogans in response to the traditional hard-liner “Death to America” chants.

The anti-Russian chants probably represent a calculated move by Rafsanjani’s supporters. They raise the issue of what kind of support Moscow may have offered Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that has Rafsanjani feeling threatened.

With Iran wrapped up in domestic turmoil, U.S. President Barack Obama’s initiative to hold a constructive dialogue with Iran on issues from the Iranian nuclear program to Iraq to Hezbollah is running into a dead end. Further complicating matters is Washington’s negotiations with Russia, which also have stagnated — in this case due to Obama’s refusal to budge on Russian demands for the United States to recognize Moscow’s sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. As long as Russia is dissatisfied with its negotiations with Obama, the United States cannot expect to receive any help from Moscow in Iran. In fact, Russia even could choose to up the ante with the United States by going beyond typical sanctions-blocking and rhetoric. To this end, it could follow through with threats to complete the Bushehr nuclear power plant and deliver S-300 strategic air defense systems to Tehran.

The sermon at Friday prayers led by Rafsanjani clearly indicates that U.S.-Russian competition over Iran is escalating. During the sermon, a number of regime hard-liners performed their traditional “Margh Bar Amrika” (Death to America) chants. But this time, supporters of Rafsanjani and defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi countered those chants with “Death to Russia” slogans.

The “Death to Russia” slogans most likely were not spontaneous. STRATFOR sources in the Iranian opposition say that the slogans used by the opposition are almost always decided before a major demonstration. The question then becomes, why did the leaders of Iran’s anti-Ahmadinejad coalition — namely, Rafsanjani — decide to bring Russia into their brawl with Ahmadinejad?

Shortly after the Iranian election, Ahmadinejad traveled to Russia for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The Iranian president was a day late to the summit and stayed only for a few hours given the crisis he was dealing with at home, but he did have enough time for a strategic photo opportunity with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. That symbolic show of solidarity with the controversial Iranian president so soon after the election may have been more than a Russian jab at the West. The Russians could have offered Ahmadinejad something more than just a handshake.

Rafsanjani has had a long history with the Russians. He was instrumental in developing a deal with Russia on Bushehr and other major deals on weapons and aviation. Medvedev’s public show of support for Ahmadinejad, however, appears to have set Rafsanjani off, thus raising suspicions over what kind of Russian support may have been offered to Iran through Ahmadinejad to influence the U.S.-Russian negotiations.

It remains unclear what Rafsanjani hopes to achieve by framing the opposition protests into an anti-Russian affair. Washington would certainly have an interest in facilitating these chants, but any U.S. involvement in the Iranian opposition movement threatens to detract from Rafsanjani’s credibility. STRATFOR will continue to gather information on this anomalous turn of events.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider.

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