The recent Gaza crisis illustrated the manner in which Iran has used Hamas to stay engaged in regional Arab politics. Moving forward, Iran plans to keep Hamas under its influence by intervening in an intensifying rivalry between Hamas’ leadership in Gaza and Damascus.

Analysis

The recent events in Gaza revealed the extent to which Iran has successfully bridged the sectarian divide to spread its influence in the Arab world through its support for Sunni Islamist groups like Hamas. A regional pariah, Iran is less restrained in lambasting Israel and in openly supporting resistance groups like Hamas since it does not possess the alliance structures with the West or the security concerns over Palestinian militancy like Arab regimes. While most Arab regimes remained silent — or even publicly condemned Hamas for its actions — during Israel’s military offensive, Iran’s public outcries against Israel and its support for Hamas through Hezbollah allowed Tehran to rise above regional sectarian differences and build credibility in the Arab world.

Though Hamas’ base in Gaza was hit hard by the Israeli military offensive, Iran is doing its part to keep the group’s exiled leader in Damascus, Khaled Meshaal, in the game. Since Israel’s Gaza offensive, tensions between the Damascus-based leadership and the Gaza-based Hamas leadership have intensified. Gaza-based Hamas leaders are still bitter about the way Meshaal, in close coordination with Iran, dragged out the conflict by refusing to agree to a truce while rival leaders in Gaza continued to get pounded. The Gaza-based Hamas leadership is dependent on Meshaal and his colleagues for collecting and administering funds to the Gaza headquarters, but has become increasingly resentful of the relative freedom of action and expression that the exiled leadership has exercised in taking a more belligerent stance against Israel without suffering the consequences.

Meanwhile, Meshaal has lost faith in the Gaza leadership and has ambitions to assume the leadership of a broader Palestinian Islamist movement that would encompass both Gaza and the West Bank. With likely prodding from Tehran, Meshaal has now tied his political future to the Iranians and is reportedly looking for ways to discredit the Gaza-based leadership. Iran has expressed an interest in boosting Meshaal’s stature and is making moves to ensure that he remains a key player in Hamas. A Stratfor source in Lebanon reported Feb. 9 that Hezbollah received new satellite equipment — paid for by the Iranians — to set up a new al Aqsa television station, a Hamas-run station that is currently operated from Gaza. In view of the tensions between the Gaza-based and Damascus-based leaderships, the Iranians are reportedly setting up the new television station in order to provide Meshaal with a media outlet in case the Hamas TV station in Gaza dissents. The station is expected to become operational within six weeks, but a political decision by Tehran will be required before Meshaal will be able to begin broadcasting.

However, Iran’s apparent moves to bolster Meshaal at the expense of the Gaza-based leadership could end up backfiring. Meshaal, who survived a botched assassination attempt by the Israeli Mossad in Jordan in 1997 and has long been on Israel’s hit list, is unable to step foot back into the Palestinian Territories. Doing so would be akin to signing his own death sentence. As a result, Meshaal must remain in exile and therefore faces a number of barriers by assuming such a broad leadership position for the Palestinians. If Meshaal’s political ambitions result in a severe rupture between the Gaza-based and Damascus-based leaderships, Hamas’ core group in Gaza will grow increasingly distrustful of the Iranians and look to its traditional Arab sponsors, such as Saudi Arabia, for greater financial assistance.

The Arab regimes are deeply unsettled by the extent to which Iran has expanded its influence over Hamas, and would likely welcome an opportunity to increase their leverage over Hamas in Gaza to counter their Persian rivals. Moreover, with Syria entertaining the idea of engaging with the United States and potentially restarting negotiations with Israel down the line, Iran cannot be assured that Hamas’ exiled leadership will remain secure in Syria in the long term. For now, Iran is more likely to play both Hamas leaderships off each other as a way to sustain its influence over the group. That said, the intra-Hamas rivalry is heating up, and if Tehran contributes to a rupture within the organization, it could end up on the losing side.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com

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