BEIRUT, Lebanon: Businessman George Jabra isn't certain the stability Lebanon has enjoyed for more than half a year is going to last. Still, he took a chance and opened up a new restaurant on a Beirut hilltop, betting on the craze for fun sweeping Lebanese.

The Lebanese capital is hopping this holiday season. Planeloads of expatriate Lebanese coming home for Christmas and New Year's are greeted by crowds of relatives at the airport. Downtown Beirut is choked with traffic jams, and shops and boutiques are full of customers.

But the festive mood, only months after bloody street clashes threatened to throw the country into civil war, is tinged with concern for what lies ahead.

Any number of upcoming developments in the new year threaten to break Lebanon's fragile truce, particularly parliament elections due in late May or early June, which could very well respark the rivalry between sectarian and political factions that fueled turmoil since 2005 but has now been dormant for months.

"Today, there is peace. Tomorrow, there could be war again," said Jabra. Nevertheless, he opened his restaurant - named Olivia's, after his eldest daughter - in mid-December. "That's who we are. Lebanese always keep building again."

He's not the only one taking advantage of the boom in this country of 4 million people. Construction cranes dot Beirut's Mediterranean skyline. Lebanese banks are flush with cash, and for now the global economic crisis has bypassed the nation.

The number of arrivals at Beirut's international airport is expected to 1.3 million at year's end ? a figure not achieved since 2004. Tourists are packing downtown restaurants and street cafes to scarf up the famed Lebanese cuisine and smoke fragrant waterpipes. Central Martyr's Square is now has a giant Christmas tree next to the city's biggest mosque, and luxury hotels are planning New Year's parties that go for up to $1,500 a plate.

The burst of prosperity is thanks to a political deal reached after the May street battles in Beirut between supporters of the pro-Western government and the Iranian- and Syrian-backed militant group Hezbollah. The fighting killed 81 people and raised fears Lebanon was about to be torn apart like it was during the bitter 1975-1990 civil war.

Under the agreement, Hezbollah, which the United States labels a terror group, and its opposition allies won a strong say in decision-making in a new national unity government.

Many Lebanese believe the truce is holding because the nations that back each faction ? Saudi Arabia and the U.S. on the pro-Western side, Iran and Syria on Hezbollah's ? backed off and didn't want to risk the country drowning in all-out sectarian conflict.

The upcoming elections, however, could shatter the unity government. The vote will be fiercely contested between Western-backed anti-Syrian factions that hold the majority in the 128-member parliament and a Hezbollah-led coalition.

"People want the truce to last, but the question is whether the factions realize this," says Rami Khouri, who heads an international affairs institute at the American University of Beirut.

"Politics has unfortunately always trumped economics in Lebanon," Khouri said. "If economic prosperity could stimulate political reconciliation, it could keep Lebanon calm."

Another critical point looms even before the elections.

An international tribunal is to begin operating March 1 to prosecute suspects in the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, which many in Lebanon blame on Syria. No one has been charged yet, but four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals have been under arrest for more than three years.

Syria, which after Hariri's slaying had to withdraw troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence, denies involvement. But if the court begins pointing fingers toward Damascus, Syria could stir up trouble in Lebanon.

And within Lebanon itself, there is a parallel state - that of the Hezbollah, which has kept its arms arsenal under the pretext of defending the country from archenemy Israel.

Hezbollah dominates Shiite-inhabited areas stretching from Beirut's southern suburbs, to the Bekaa in the east and to the border with Israel in the south. It has earned the admiration of many Lebanese for battling Israel, most recently in the 2006 summer war.

But others fear it, especially after the May clashes, when Hezbollah fighters overwhelmed parts of Beirut. Hezbollah also gives Iran a firm foothold on Israel's northern border that Tehran is unlikely to give up.

Shoppers in the glitzy mall in Beirut's Ashrafieh neighborhood were well aware of how many ways there are for things to fall apart.

"Everything is interconnected here in the Middle East. So much depends what happens with Iran, Syria," said retiree George Moujaes, 79, as he herded around seven grandchildren, all visiting from abroad. "I hope for peace but I am not optimistic."

Engineer Bashir Khoury, 34, visiting from abroad, says he's happy to enjoy Lebanon but wouldn't risk coming home for good.

"People my age, we don't trust the government. I come to spend my money, have fun, see my parents. Then I go back," said Khoury, who lives in Haiti. -AP