All of the information indicates that the indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel via Turkish mediation are continuing, despite the confused political situation in Israel. The secretary general of the Elysée Palace, Claude Gueant, told al-Hayat that he believes this to be the case, based on all of his information. Some people, including French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, are afraid that progress on the Syrian-Israeli track will come at the expense of the Palestinian-Israeli track. Aaron Miller, a former US government official from the Democratic Party, said something interesting in an article in The New York Times last week. Miller said that President-elect Barack Obama should dedicate his efforts to the Syrian-Israeli track, since the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations are very difficult. An Israeli abandonment of the Golan Heights, in exchange for Syria's reining in of Hezbollah and Hamas, is easier than an Israeli concession over Jerusalem, settlements, and other pending matters on the Palestinian track.

Miller worked with Dennis Ross, the former US coordinator of the peace process, who is now an Obama advisor. Miller is aware, like others in the West, that no one should expect anything on the Palestinian-Israeli track, since Israel does not want peace with the Palestinians, and does not want a Palestinian state on its borders. Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to win in the coming Israeli elections, and he favors making progress on the Syrian track to giving Palestinians their rights and reaching a true peace with them.

Thus, thanks to its indirect negotiations with Israel, Syria has exited its international isolation. Now, everyone is going to Syria, with French and European officials in the lead.

What about Lebanon, and the International Tribunal? Some believe that Lebanon will be relieved if Syria reaches a peace agreement with Israel and Hezbollah is reined in along with Hamas, whose leader lives in Damascus. Others think that if Syria arrives at peace with Israel, Lebanon will be given to Damascus as a gift, Hezbollah will adjust to the new situation, and the International Tribunal will be buried. In this scenario, Syria will guarantee Israel's security in Lebanon. But this is unlikely, since whoever thinks Syria can dismantle the close ties with Iran, which have been in place for 30 years, is naïve. Iran is keen to retain the Hezbollah card. The roles in the region, if Syria and Israel make peace, could be distributed between Iran and Syria when it comes to Hezbollah's weapons.

As for Lebanon and the International Tribunal, these depend on next year's parliamentary elections. If the current majority wins, the Lebanese can be optimistic that the international community and states that have supported Lebanon all of these years will not abandon the country and return it to Syrian hegemony; the International Tribunal and the truth about the killing of former Prime Minister Martyr Rafic Hariri will not be buried either.

If the victory goes to the friends of Syria and its allies in Lebanon, from Hezbollah to Michel Aoun, then this will mean that Syria has returned to political domination over Lebanese decision-making, since the prime minister and the speaker of Parliament will be from the pro-Syrian faction. All of the institutions that have regained sovereignty since the departure of Syrian forces from Lebanon will return to the control of Damascus. Thus, the majority must prepare itself well for these elections and overcome all of the disputes and ambitions within its ranks, with this or that party demanding that its candidates be selected. This is especially the case among the Christian groups, such as the Lebanese Forces and the Phalange. The challenge is a big one, because the opposition wants to return Syrian hegemony to all political decisions taken in Lebanon, via the allies of Damascus, and there will be no need for a military presence. If the majority cannot overcome its differences, it will be easier for us to see the scenario of Syria taking Lebanon in exchange for a Syrian-Israeli peace, and all of the country's martyrs, most prominently Hariri, will have paid with their blood for independence and sovereignty that will be lost once again!