BEIRUT - The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated that the travel and tourism industry would contribute directly $1.36 billion to the Lebanese economy, equivalent to 5.7 percent of GDP in 2008, according to a report in Lebanon This Week, an economic publication of the Byblos Bank Group. The report added that direct industry employment will reach 80,000, representing 5.9 percent of total employment in Lebanon this year.

The report said that since travel and tourism (T&T) touches on all sectors of the economy, its real direct and indirect impact is even greater, and forecast the T&T economy overall to generate $4.43 billion, or 18.7 percent, of economic activity in Lebanon in 2008. That would include 252,000 jobs, or one in every 5.4 jobs, representing 18.4 percent of total employment in 2008. The WTTC's definition of T&T includes transportation, accommodation, catering, recreation and services for visitors. It added that the industry's direct contribution to Lebanon's economic activity will rise to $2.3 billion, or 5.2 percent of GDP, in 2018, while the broader T&T economy will contribute $7.5 billion, or 17.1 percent of GDP, by 2018.

The WTTC projected the T&T economy in Lebanon to grow by 2.3 percent per year in real terms between 2009 and 2018 compared to 3.9 percent in the Middle East and 4 percent globally over the same period of time, while the direct industry will grow by 2.2 percent per year in real terms during the 2009-2018 period compared to 5.6 percent growth for the Middle East and 3.3 percent globally. Lebanon's T&T economy ranked 35th among 176 countries in terms of its contribution to GDP in 2008, while it ranked in 162nd place worldwide in terms of its annualized growth rate over the 2009-18 period.

Further, jobs in the T&T direct industry are forecast to reach 85,000 or 5.3 percent of total jobs in Lebanon by 2018, while employment in Lebanon's T&T economy should total 268,000 jobs overall, or one in every 5.9 jobs, equivalent to 16.8 percent of total employment by 2018. In comparison, the WTTC forecast direct industry employment in the Middle East to grow by 5.6 percent over the 2009-18 period and to account for 3.1 percent of total employment, while it forecast the T&T economy employment to grow by 2.8 percent and to account for 9.2 percent of total employment in the region. Lebanon ranked 32nd worldwide in terms of the share of its T&T economy employment out of total employment, while it came in 143rd place in the real growth rate of T&T employment over the coming 10 years.

Also, The WTTC said visitor exports, defined as expenditures by international visitors on goods and services in the resident economy, make up a very important share of T&T's contribution to GDP in Lebanon. T&T is expected to generate $3.8 billion or 26 percent of Lebanon's exports of goods and services in 2008, increasing to $6.5 billion or 24.8 percent of the total in 2018. In comparison, Travel & Tourism exports are expected to represent 6.2 percent of total exports in 2008 in the Middle East and 5.8 percent in the world, as well as 8.4 percent in the Middle East and 5.4 percent in the world in 2018. Also, Lebanon's T&T exports are expected to grow by an annualized real rate of 2.4 percent in 2009-2018, compared to growth rates of 5.7 percent for the Middle East and 5.3 percent in the world. Lebanon ranked in 39th place globally in terms of visitor exports as a share of total exports in 2008, and it came in 166th place in terms of real growth of such exports over the coming 10 years.

In parallel, the WTTC projected Travel & Tourism to post $9.1 billion in economic activity in 2008 in terms of total demand, growing to $16.8 billion by 2018. Total demand is expected to decline by 2.4 percent in 2008 and to rise by 3.2 percent per year in real terms between 2009 and 2018. Total demand represents 0.15 percent of world market share in 2008. Further, Lebanon ranked in 157th place in terms of the projected real growth rate of T&T total demand over the coming 10 years.

Additionally, The WTTC estimated capital investment in T&T at $679 million, or 14.3 percent of total investment in 2008, increasing to $1.25 billion or 14.3 percent of total by 2018. It forecast T&T capital investment in Lebanon to grow in real terms by 3.1 percent annually over the coming 10 years compared to 3.1 percent for the Middle East and 5.6 percent globally.

Finally, the WTTC estimated government expenditures on T&T at $348 million in 2008, or 9.1 percent of the total government spending. This includes operating expenditures made by government agencies on services associated with Travel & Tourism, such as tourism promotion, aviation, administration, security services and resort area sanitation services, among others. It projected such expenditures to reach $546 million in 2018 and to account for 9.3 percent of public spending. It also forecast real annualized growth rate of such spending on T&T at 1.4 percent over the 2009-20018 period compared to 5.1 percent in the Middle East and 3 percent globally. -Daily Star