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Oxford Business Group, August 13, 2008

Lebanonwire

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Lebanon: Long on Hope, Short on Time

Lebanon's new national unity cabinet has approved a statement setting out the policies the coalition government will follow in the months leading up to general elections, scheduled for next May, though the gap between ratification and implementation may prove to be a wide one.

Having taken nearly three weeks to hammer out an agreement on the policy statement, the document was tabled for debate by the Lebanese parliament on August 9. It was met with disapproval from all sides, even those who initially supported it in the cabinet room.

Representatives of both Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's majority March 14 bloc and the Hizbollah-led minority in the government criticised the policy statement. Pro-March 14 deputies were unhappy that it did not do enough to force Hizbollah to disarm. Hizbollah supporters complained about a clause which set out "the state's right to spread its sovereignty over the entire Lebanese territory so as to prevent these areas from becoming a safe haven for fugitives of the law." They believed the clause implicitly targeted the group and its supporters.

Much of the document was dedicated to outlining policies that would revive the economy.

One of the underlying principles of the programme is to restore trust in the future of the Lebanese economy, both at home and abroad, as well as strengthening the partnership between the public and private sectors. At the heart of these efforts is a proposal to open up Lebanon's electricity production and distribution network to private investment.

Though often mooted in the past, plans to privatise state electricity monopoly Electricite du Liban have repeatedly fallen by the wayside. One of the reasons for this has been the massive losses the utility incurs, having required state funding in excess of $1bn last year to prop up its operations, making it a relatively unattractive proposition for the private sector. Another has been strong opposition to the sell-off from some political parties, including Hizbollah, which are thought to favour a more centralised control of the economy. As a short-term measure, the cabinet has proposed an increase in electricity prices, an effort to cut losses in production costs and end user payments.

The government also said it would push ahead with privatising the telecom sector, a direct reference to plans to auction off two mobile phone licences. This plan has also been stalled, mainly due to parliament not sitting for more than a year to sign off the proposal. With broad-based support for the sale, the two state-owned licences could now be put on the block before the general elections.

The policy statement offered the prospect of state aid to small and medium-sized businesses, proposing a 0%-interest loan scheme and boosting opportunities for smaller firms to bid on state tenders.

The document stated that sectors such as industry and agriculture were vital for the economy, and would be given every assistance to expand and revitalise. Yet the document did not put a costing on any of the projects or policies it outlined. Though proposing soft loans to farmers, businesses and start-ups, exact details of these schemes, along with their expense, were not provided.

With many of these assistance schemes having to either be started from scratch or be significantly overhauled, it is hard to see how much benefit could be derived from some of these programmes before the country goes into election mode.

On the issues of public funding and debt, the statement said the government would work with parliament to get approval for the previous three budgets, and work towards approving the draft budget for 2009. It also gave a commitment to reduce public spending "through discussion and draft laws, especially those that are currently in parliament", and to improve expenditure management programmes and bolster tax collection mechanisms.

In the case of tax collection, the government perhaps faces an uphill battle. It is unlikely that any of the diverse groups represented in the national unity cabinet would like to be seen supporting cuts in state spending while stepping up measures to increase the tax burden on businesses and families, according to local media.

Despite the ongoing debate over the government's policy agenda, the formation of the new cabinet has found favour with at least one international credit agency. On August 6, the day after the cabinet approved its policy platform, Standard & Poor's ratings services upgraded its long-term sovereign credit ratings for Lebanon to 'B-' from 'CCC+'.

The improved assessment reflected the easing of tensions in Lebanon and the rapprochement between March 14 and opposition groups, according to Ben Faulks, a credit analyst with S&P.

"This reduces the risk that depositors will withdraw funds from the Lebanese banking sector, which in turn lessens the government's near-term financing risks as banks are by far the government's largest creditors," a statement read.

It could be argued that the reduction in political tension cited by S&P has not diminished. While parliament has convened, it has yet to ratify the cabinet policy document, with the ballot effectively a vote of confidence in the new government. If that support is not forthcoming, agencies such as S&P may revise their estimates.

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