During the incident, an Israeli border guard allegedly shot himself and fell from the rooftop where he was stationed. The victim, whose full name was Raid Asaad Raid Ghanan, was a Druze from northern Israel. Ghanan’s brother and father were both adamant that he had no reason to kill himself. The Druze, whose beliefs emerged rom Islam, are recognized as an independent group in Israel and generally oppose the Palestinians. Within the Israeli military, they are known for being well-disciplined and loyal soldiers. Many of them serve in the border guard, like Ghanan, who had served for eight years.

It would thus be very surprising if Ghanan was, say, planning to target Sarkozy. But we find it even more surprising that an Israeli border guard would commit suicide while guarding a head of state, much less two.

Within Israeli politics, much is possible. At this point, we can only speculate on what might really have happened. Perhaps Ghanan snapped and was acting as a lone wolf (although this brings up the question of how he got through the Israeli vetting process and escaped detection by his commanders), or perhaps someone had hired him as an inside assassin. Ghanan’s weapon, a .223 caliber M-16, is not the ideal weapon for killing a person from 200 meters, though doing so could have been possible — especially considering his military background.

Recent talk of an accord between Syria and Israel has unsettled the region’s geopolitics, perhaps creating a motivation to act for leaders who would lose out if such a deal were reached. One such leader with tight connections to the Israeli Druze community is Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Lebanese Druze community, an avid anti-Syrian and a stakeholder in Lebanon’s new government.

Israeli snipers guarding Sarkozy and Olmert during the departure ceremony could have noticed an assassination attempt by Ghanan, prompting them to shoot him. Implicating Jumblatt into an assassination attempt on Sarkozy is a stretch, however, and he is certainly not the only player with interests at stake in the Israeli-Syrian negotiations. But equally confounding is the idea that a guard committed suicide during a departure ceremony between two state leaders, much less in an Israel in the throes of political tensions.

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