Top Banner

blank.gif (59 bytes)

Opinion, June 23, 2008

Lebanonwire

blank.gif (59 bytes)
The Jeddah Meeting and the Holistic Approach
Abdullah Iskandar, Al-Hayat

From the poorest to the richest countries, from the countries with firmly-established economies (agriculture, industry, techniques) to emerging countries with high growth rates, more than ever, the current energy crisis seems to be linked to many intertwined factors and can no longer be contained by unilateral and individual initiatives.

In fact, some experts believe that the worldwide crises linked to financial markets, energy, and food are beyond solving, and that any salutary measures are those aimed at accommodating to these crises that with time will turn into habitual matters that will give rise to new crises demanding new efforts to confront them. While such predictions may seem extremely pessimistic, in reality they are based on previous experiences with crises often linked to the structure of human evolution.

However, the gravity of the current crisis and the ensuing human suffering and political disturbances demand a new approach essentially based on the assumption of the existence of a joint interest for the cooperation among producers and consumers to limit the negative implications of the crisis- especially that everyone is either a producer or a consumer of energy, food, or money.

OPEC is described as a cartel that aims at protecting the rights of producers at a time when major corporations controlled the industry. With OPEC, producing nations were able to regain their sovereignty over this vital resource, and with this sovereignty, they were able to impose an equitable balance in energy markets at a time when there was no disequilibrium between supply and demand, a time when the currently emerging countries were satisfied with little energy and food (either because they were located behind an iron curtain or as a result of their modest growth), and when hundreds of billions of surplus dollars did not exist in sovereign funds.

Today, however, and with the intertwining of crises, OPEC - which did not fail to satisfy its level of production- has to set the bases of a serious relationship with consuming nations which at the same time are producers of vital goods for its member countries. It is a relation that leaves out no political, economic, and financial elements.

In this context, he Jeddah meeting summoned by King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz to discuss the stability of the market may well turn into an occasion to launch such cooperation. This is especially true as it became evident that increasing oil production alone does not resolve the problem of high prices. It is also worth mentioning that both production and refinery capacities are limited currently and significantly raising hteir levels requires huge investments on the one hand, and finding quick solutions to allow the return of major producers (such as Iran and Iraq) to the market with a momentum that matches their reserve levels on the other hand. This assumes political solutions that brings an end to the Iranian nuclear issue, allows the return of investment to the Iranian energy sectors, and establishes stability and security in Iraq. All this requires political solutions in the first place.

Evidently huge oil companies are accumulating unusual fortunes as a result of the crisis, but at the same time, they are avoiding investment in refinery plants, especially in the US, the most gluttonous consumer of energy. Markets may not stabilize with the growing shortage in refined supplies and it has become necessary to find formulas to motivate these corporations to make such investments.

With respect to investment, attempts are made to persuade oil-producing nations to open up for foreign capitals at a time when there are huge funds that producers hold in their sovereign funds and which by far exceed exploration and excavation needs.

In parallel, there is a need to consider the worsening phenomenon of speculation in the energy market, especially after the explosion of the subprime mortgage and financial markets crisis and growing preference of investors for the guaranteed returns of oil markets rather than productive investments. This in turn raises the freedom and control of transaction in money markets. Additionally, there is a need to consider the transformation of vast agricultural areas all over the world to compensate the shortage in oil production at the expense of agricultural production and the consequences of such transformation in terms of food shortages and rising food prices.

Ultimately, all these issues will not find solutions in Jeddah despite the wide participation by states and international entities, but the meeting may be the first occasion to consider the foundations of a cooperation that takes all the elements of the crisis into consideration, even when a few present and absent producers and consumers perceive the meeting as some urgent OPEC meeting rather than an attempt at a holistic approach to all the facets of the crisis and without which cooperation will not be fruitful.

back.gif (883 bytes)