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Global Intelligence, Stratfor, June 18, 2008

United Arab Emirates: The Threat-Level Uptick

Summary

The United States and the United Kingdom have elevated the threat level to their embassies in the United Arab Emirates. The escalation signals that the threat environment in the Persian Gulf nation has changed.

Analysis

The United States elevated the threat level at its embassy in the United Arab Emirates on June 16 two days after the United Kingdom elevated the threat level at its embassy in the Persian Gulf nation.

The United Arab Emirates never has experienced a major terrorist attack because of its tight security and because al Qaeda preferred instead to use the nation as base to coordinate and finance attacks. Even so, the Arab country always has operated under a certain level of risk due to its neighborhood. These recent escalations of the threat level signal that the environment in the United Arab Emirates has changed.

The United Kingdom warning, which was vague, stated that an attack could take place in areas frequented by foreigners. The U.S. statement was similar, though its warning extended to the entire region. The British and U.S. warnings may have been based on the same intelligence. Stratfor has not seen any indications that physical defensive measures have been taken at either of these embassies, so the threat remains vague. Though the intelligence could be inaccurate, if foreign governments take additional steps to protect their embassies in the United Arab Emirates, attacks or arrests can be expected soon.

Tight security and the presence of al Qaeda support networks in the United Arab Emirates have ensured that no serious attacks have taken place there, allowing the country to prosper without the sorts of violent incidents that have destabilized other countries on the Arabian Peninsula. Militants typically do not attack their logistic hubs. The United Arab Emirates was an important staging ground for many of those behind the 9/11 attacks. One of the ringleaders of the Sept. 11 plots, Marwan el-Shehi, was a citizen of the United Arab Emirates. Others involved in the plot wired money to the 9/11 hijackers via UAE banks.

But one of the limiting factors to preventing attacks in the United Arab Emirates has dried up. Security remains as tight as ever. However, since the 9/11 attacks, many high-profile militants residing in the United Arab Emirates have been killed, arrested or bought off, or they have moved operations to other regions such as Yemen or Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province. If the United Arab Emirates no longer is serving as an operations hub for groups such as al Qaeda, then those groups would have little reason to withhold attacks on the country.

The Middle Eastern country certainly presents a target-rich environment, given that it draws companies and businessmen from all over the world. The government is also a staunch ally of the United States, putting the United Arab Emirates in a bad light from the militant perspective.

As long as the United Arab Emirates continues to draw foreign businesses in and works to keep militant Islamists out, the threat of a militant attack remains credible.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com