The court’s move to overturn the law (which had passed in Parliament by a 411-103 vote) suggests it will be receptive to Yalcinkaya’s accusations that the AK Party is attempting to subvert the secular nature of the Turkish republic. Therefore, there is a strong likelihood that the AK Party will join the graveyard of defunct Turkish parties. We do not rule out the possibility of some type of compromise in which the party survives in some form, however.

The historical battle between Islamist and secular forces in Turkey in the past five-and-a-half years has metamorphosed into a struggle over the definition of secularism. To a great degree, this is an ideological struggle between the Kemalist establishment and the AK Party. More importantly, however, it is a struggle for power between two types of elites — the old liberal one that dominates the unelected organs of the Turkish state and a new conservative one emerging via the ballot box.

In the past, the clash between the two sides has remained largely inconsequential — the establishment was easily able to get rid of the several predecessors of the AK Party by outlawing them, as they controlled a minor share in the 550-seat legislature and were partners in coalition governments. This time around, though, the stakes are much higher.

The result of a ban on the AK Party would likely be large-scale instability. Not only does the ruling party have a solid majority — in the form of 341 seats — it also controls the presidency. The shutting down of the AK Party could lead to a systemic crisis, not simply a minor case of political instability.

What is worse is the timing of this event. After having emerged from a financial crisis in 2001, the Turkish economy under the AK Party’s rule has improved tremendously, which is one of the key reasons for the party’s successful re-election in July 2007. Its ouster from power could lead to a reversal of the gains made in recent years.

Political stability and economic growth have allowed Turkey to re-emerge on the international scene for the first time in close to a century. The Turks have been looking at expanding their influence in all geographic directions — the West, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

If the case against the ruling party succeeds, Turkey’s attempts to re-emerge in the global arena would be halted by what appears to be a major crisis in the making. The AK Party remains highly popular, but it would be some time before a successor party could get off the ground. In the meantime, Turkey would slide back into a period (even if it is relatively brief) of coalition governments and the associated instability. There is a reason why the military, contrary to its past behavior, is not forcefully opposing the AK Party or even aggressively supporting the closure case against the ruling party.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com

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