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Opinion, June 4, 2008

Lebanonwire

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The Double Palestinian Quagmire
Abdullah Iskandar, Al-Hayat

It is now evident that the two Palestinian sides (Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip) to the conflict with Israel are in a tight spot, as their bets to at least reach their declared goals have vanished.

To start with, the peace process on the Palestinian track which the Palestinian Authority was betting on is put on hold now, as Israel and the US expend time. In the meantime, the strategy of Gaza's government to resist and break the political, military and humanitarian siege is facing many obstacles that have proven too difficult to surpass through Egyptian mediation.

In addition to this, the current situation both on the Palestinian and Israeli levels seems to offer no chances to either side to take initiative. In fact, it is the current situation in particular that is forcing the expenditure of time, consequently worsening the quagmire.

At its zenith, the American vision for two states has not led to any progress in pushing the Palestinian peace process forward. The Palestinian-Israeli negotiation sessions were merely a boring repetition; the American sponsor was not seemingly interested nor capable of ending this repetition. In addition to the original Israeli position that opposes any serious concessions to satisfy Palestinian rights and the needs to establish the state, Ehud Olmert is hoping to use his hard position with the Palestinians on core issues and his new settlement plans as the new face for his battle to stay in power amidst serious corruption charges.

The American administration is a lame duck waiting for its term to expire, while the political crisis in Israel could end with the return of the Likud to power. In other words, it would bring about more rigidity toward the peace process. With all this, the Palestinian talk about peace becomes nothing more than management of the status quo rather than a viable strategy. At the same time, the increasing difficulty of managing daily life in the West Bank foments domestic conflicts, especially with the growing frustration and the attempts to review the new reality.

In Gaza, Hamas has not been able to achieve a breakthrough in the new reality that resulted from its forceful imposition of authority in the Strip, especially with respect to imposing the legitimacy that the Palestinian Authority continues to monopolize. Apart from deepening internal divisions and imposing the status quo on the residents of the Strip, neither betting on time nor stirring crises with neighbors, especially Egypt, indicates a potential decisive resolution over the direction of Palestinian legitimacy. Consequently, Hamas' efforts have been reduced to the daily management of the siege, which offers no chance for the breakthrough desired by Hamas.

In any case, Hamas has failed to dispossess the Palestinian Authority of its Arab and international legitimacy even if the management of daily life in the Strip offers it the opportunity to meet with international parties that once depicted it as "terrorist." Although Hamas has imposed itself as a basic Palestinian faction on the Arab level, Arab recognition is still exclusively granted to the Palestinian Authority and its presidency. Hence, the Authority remains the unquestioned Palestinian representative on the general Arab level and with respect to each and every Arab state. Additionally, the Arab Peace Initiative remains the reference for peace with Israel, hence the failed Hamas strategy to overturn the management of the conflict with Israel.

Prior to that, the two Palestinian sides had failed for many reasons and conflicting motives to achieve coexistence through dialogue and agreements that were breached when they were barely concluded. Perhaps the time has come for both sides to look realistically and objectively to the situation and work on the basis of the logical conclusion that Hamas' control of Gaza by force and the manner by which the Authority handled this issue have achieved the goals of neither side. Naturally, this is because any gain made by one side represents a loss on the general Palestinian level.

With the declaration of the Doha Agreement for Lebanon, voices were heard calling for an initiative by the Arab League on the Palestinian front. However, the Doha Agreement would not have succeeded in carrying the Lebanese situation from the brink of civil war to peace and the rule of institutions were it not for the binding commitment of the Lebanese parties not to recognize the political outcomes of using military force. The "militarily" victorious side had to relinquish the outcomes of its control on the ground. Such a conclusion imposes itself on any evaluation by the Palestinians, especially by Hamas.

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