A "declaration of intentions," either in bilateral or multilateral talks, is put forth as a means to guarantee the election of General Michel Suleiman as president in the upcoming session scheduled in less than two weeks. These intentions must entail the participation of the opposition MPs in the session to guarantee both the quorum and the election. They must equally secure the approval of the majority of a national unity cabinet and the adoption of caza as an administrative unit in the parliamentary elections due next spring. Such a declaration, however, is no different in form from the "complete basket" that has obstructed the Arab initiative earlier. This is so not only because of the lack of trust between the two sides and the problem of simultaneity, but also because the dilemmas that have led to this crisis are still in place, especially the international tribunal, the unity of the state's authority and the ensuing ramifications, such as illegal arms, resistance, and relationship with Syria.

What seems to be a breakthrough on the surface may in reality be linked to temporary regional needs and future domestic considerations. All this is regardless of the form of agreement, be it a "declaration of intentions" responding to Speaker Berri's call for expanded dialogue, or a voiced preference by the March 14 camp for bilateral dialogue between its leading figure, MP Saad Hariri, and the Speaker.

Optimism surfaced as soon as Speaker Berri returned from his last declared trip to Damascus. He made it understood that Syria is trying to cool things down on the Arab front following all the tensions and criticisms that preceded the last Arab summit it hosted. This came at a time Arab and international pressures to complete the Lebanese presidential elections were stepped up. The talk about achieving a breakthrough in Lebanon is in line with the contents of the peaceful solution through Turkish mediation between Syria and Israel. In fact, the contradiction between the continued stiffness in the Lebanese issue and the repeated expression of readiness for a peaceful solution with Israel may be so obvious. In parallel, the American intentions behind raising the Syrian nuclear issue and the limits of exploiting this issue to isolate Damascus further are not yet clear, especially as the US administration is back to its focus on the Syrian role in the attacks against American troops in Iraq. Syria, which is betting on improved relations with the next administration in the US, does not exclude the possibility of an anticipated action by President George Bush before his term expires in the hope of tipping the regional balance and scoring a goal before leaving office. Accordingly, calming things down on the Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese fronts may be essential to avoid the unpredictable unknowns in President Bush's behavior and to expend the remainder of his term in office without incurring losses.

On the other hand, the future domestic needs for the signs of a breakthrough must be perceived in the light of preparing for parliamentary elections next spring, that is, in just a few months from now. Such elections cannot be held without a president who grants legitimacy to the government that is supposed to hold them. Hence, the presence of a president is a prerequisite for these elections on which the opposition pins its hopes to topple the parliamentary balance of powers before proceeding to resolve the aforementioned pending issues by constitutional means, especially since it has prevented the current majority from exploiting its parliamentary superior presence to resolve these issues in its favor. Thus, even if the "declaration of intentions" did not grant the opposition the "obstructing third," it guarantees its participation in supervising the pre-elections phase, prevents March 14 from utilizing its status as a majority at present, and responds to the demand of distributing the electoral constituencies in such a way that grants it victory. On the other hand, if the attempt to reach the "declaration" fails, the opposition will have expended lost time, as it awaits the regional situation to clear up amidst deteriorating economic and living conditions which will reflect negatively on the government and the majority.