Vice Premier Haim Ramon said Thursday at a gathering with Tel Aviv officials that "Hezbollah is wary of avenging the assassination of its commander Imad Mugniyah because they discovered during the Second Lebanon War that they cannot predict Israel's response to their actions."

The war made all the difference. Vice Premier Haim Ramon said Thursday during a meeting with prominent Tel Aviv executives that “Hezbollah is wary of avenging the assassination of its commander Imad Mugniyah because they discovered during the Second Lebanon War that they cannot predict Israel’s response to their actions.”

Concerning the mounting "cold escalation" with the northern front of Israel, Ramon said, "Israel's ability to negotiate with Syria is very limited, if at all existent, at the moment. It is very difficult to withdraw Syria from the axis of extremism, because the Golan Heights are not sufficient incentive for Syria to sacrifice its alliance with Iran and the control that it harbors over Lebanon."

Ramon added that Damascus "has made a strategic choice" and places more importance on keeping peace with Iran and Hezbollah than Israel, Ynetnews reported Thursday.

Avenging Mugniyah

Preparations on both the Syrian and the Israeli side for a possible retaliation for Imad Mugniyah's killing have brought about a "cold escalation" on the northern border that could lead to an open military confrontation.

Since Hezbollah's leader's assassination in Damascus in February, Syria and Israel have gradually boosted deployment on the ground, while at the same time sending out covert and overt warnings to the other side.

Arab news outlets recently reported that Syria has already started reinforcing its forces on the Lebanese border, called up the reserves for training and raised alertness of its missile, rocket and anti-aircraft systems. Hezbollah has also boosted preparations for a potential Israeli tank offensive, while making last-minute efforts to have its heavy rocket systems north of the Litani River ready.

The recent escalation emanates from Israel's assessment that Hezbollah – with the aid of Syria and Iran – is planning a big terror attack, or a rocket and missile attack, as revenge for Mugniyah's death. Officials also estimate the Syria might join forces with Hezbollah in such an attack, to retaliate for Israel's strike on its alleged nuclear facility last summer.

Meanwhile, Syria, Hezbollah and Iran are aware that such an attack could lead to a "hard and disproportionate" Israeli response, which Israeli officials have already threatened to deliver. Israel's enemies believe that such a response would include a large-scale airstrike on Lebanon and Syria that would help Israel rebuild its deterrence following the Second Lebanon War.

Hamas to aid Hezbollah?

While revenge for Mugniyah is currently the most obvious cause for the rising tension on the border, Israeli intelligence officials also believe that if the IDF launches a wide-scale operation in Gaza, Iran could instruct Hezbollah to aid Hamas by firing rockets at Israel.

A reverse scenario, in which Hamas launches rockets, missiles and terror attacks on Israel in a bid to help Hezbollah in the north is also plausible.

A third scenario that should be taken into account is that Syria may take advantage of a retaliatory attack by Hezbollah, and a consequent Israeli response, to regain its control over Lebanon and crown the Shiite organization as the dominant political force in the country.