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March 27, 2008

Lebanonwire

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Inerview: Gemayel warns of "law of the jungle" in Lebanon
By Tom Perry

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Rivalry between Arab states is inflaming a crisis in Lebanon that threatens its civil peace and risks dragging it towards "the law of the jungle", former President Amin Gemayel said on Wednesday.

The crisis is at heart of a dispute between Syria and U.S.-allied Arab states including Saudi Arabia, which accuses Damascus of obstructing attempts to resolve Lebanon's worst internal conflict since the 1975-90 civil war.

Syria backs Lebanese factions which are locked in a power struggle with a governing coalition of anti-Damascus politicians, including Gemayel. The governing alliance is supported by both Riyadh and Washington. "There is no doubt that these (Arab) differences will inflame the conflict in the Lebanese arena," said Gemayel, who was president of a U.S.-backed Beirut administration from 1982-1988.

Saudi's King Abdullah and Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak are staying away from a March 29-30 Arab summit in Damascus in a sign of how badly Lebanon is affecting Arab ties.

"The alliance between some Lebanese political forces and Syria and Iran will expose Lebanon's security and stability to to many dangers," Gemayel told Reuters in an interview.

"The failure of the Arab summit will lead to the exacerbation of the crisis and, likewise, increase the danger of this deepening crisis," he said.

"This exacerbation may take a non-political shape and expose civil peace, security and stability to great dangers," said Gemayel, beside him a portrait of his assassinated son Pierre.

Gunmen shot dead cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel in November 2006 in one of a string of assassinations targeting figures opposed to Syrian influence in Lebanon.

"HEAVILY ARMED"

The opposition to the governing coalition is led by Hezbollah, a political and guerrilla movement backed by both Syria and Iran. There have already been bouts of lethal street violence between supporters of the rival camps.

The leaders have accused each other of arming and training followers. But outbreaks of violence have so far been contained.

"When Hezbollah is heavily armed ... it is natural that this could lead to conflicts in the Lebanese arena which go beyond politics and, God forbid, would be translated into chaos in the Lebanese street and security troubles," Gemayel said.

The political conflict has dragged on for 16 months, aggravating communal tensions between followers of rival sectarian leaders and paralysing government in addition to leaving the presidency empty since November.

The rivals agree that army chief General Michel Suleiman should fill the post. But his confirmation has been repeatedly delayed by a dispute over power-sharing in a new cabinet.

"God forbid, if this vacuum is consolidated and we arrive at something approaching the law of the jungle ... it is possible for any third party, or fifth column to push the country towards fighting," Gemayel said.

"Detonating (the situation) is the easiest thing in a country suffering from this vacuum and this worry," he said.

"All are in need of a solution because we all face a dead end," Gemayel said, adding that he was working on ideas to promote a solution. "It is not easy," he said.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a leading opposition figure, has said he will invite the rival leaders for direct talks if the Arab summit fails to achieve a breakthrough.

"Gathering people for the sake of gathering will have negative repercussions," said Gemayel, listing a series of failed initiatives to resolve the standoff and saying he would want a clear idea of the agenda in advance.

"If the situation stays as it is, there is nothing to guarantee that there will be parliamentary elections in 2009." -Reuters

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