Two weeks before the Arab League summit being hosted by Syria on March 29, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Thursday received his country's invitation from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The irony of the date the invitation arrived, March 14, was lost on no one in government here. March 14, 2005, was the date on which a public rally of more than one million people, in the wake of the assassination of former premier Rafik al-Hariri one month earlier, convinced Damascus it had to cut and run from Lebanon, ending 30 years of tutelage and - theoretically - giving birth to a democratic revolution in Lebanon.

Ever since, the date has taken on the symbolism of anti-Syrian defiance and the stirrings of a resilient democracy.

Three years later, the dream of the Cedar Revolution has proven to be a fantasy. Lebanon remains in the clutches of elements of the Syrian establishment.

Politics here is mired in a serious crisis. Four government MPs have been slain, and the remainder are in hiding. Elections for a head of state have been stymied 16 times. And Arab states are feeling more and more threatened because of their increasingly imperilled interests in this brittle and battered nation.

More than ever, Lebanon is a proxy arena for the competing agendas of others. The US and key Arab states believe Lebanon could once again be inching towards the precipice that saw it plunge into 15 years of civil war. And they want to send a message to the alleged agitators, Iran and Syria that, this time, it's serious.

"In the past two months, a decision has been made to abandon the softly-softly approach and go for the jugular," said a Lebanese Government official, familiar with US and European strategies in the region.

"The Americans have realised they are being played and that ... Assad is just sweating Bush out to see what he gets next. Talking with them has led us nowhere."

Late last month, three US warships took up positions off the coast of Lebanon for the first time since the dark years of the civil war. They are patrolling international waters and are not part of the UN-led fleet established in the wake of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. The warships' presence has one goal in mind - to send a message to Damascus that the way the game is played has changed.

Throughout Lebanon, political and sectarian camps have been realigning. This month, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador, fearing its statesmen and citizens could become targets in an anti-Arab world putsch. Riyadh has been a staunch supporter of the Siniora Government - partly a carry-over from its backing of Hariri, who was of Saudi origin, but more because of the Government's proxy war with Syria and its patron Iran.

Much of the realignment across the Middle East is taking place because of a widely-feared Iranian imperialism. This, coupled with Iran's naked nuclear ambitions, has added impetus to some unusual alliances.

The Saudis are talking to Israel. So, too, the Gulf states. The US, which has not travelled well in Middle East affairs, has found a willing ear in virtually the whole Sunni world, which is determined to see off the return of Iranian hegemony.

Jordan and Egypt are now more edgy than ever about what the Sunni states deem to be the "rise of the Shia crescent", with the latter recently adopting a policy of asking Lebanese Sunni and Christian visitors to the Hashemite kingdom to work for their spy services.

"We are very worried about what is happening in your country," a Jordanian intelligence official told a Lebanese colleague who was summoned to Amman's spy headquarters earlier this month. "If we could call you any time, especially about Hezbollah and the opposition, we would really appreciate it."

Until the new year, the Sunni world's strategy with Syria was to lure it back to the fold through diplomacy.

Israel was marshalled by Washington to again table the prize of Golan Heights, which it captured from Damascus during the Six Day War, 40 years ago. The price would be Damascus turning its back on its dangerous and implacable ally.

Assad has shown signs of being tempted by the lure - exchanging messages through Turkish mediators with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, including one missive received early last week.

However, even the return of the coveted Golan, lost by Assad's father Hafez al-Assad, is increasingly seen as insufficient to drive a wedge between the two allies.

In short, the return to Syria's clutches of Lebanon, which Assad Jr lost, is seen as more valuable politically and economically.

The US late last week introduced a new tactic into its dealings with Syria, urging, but not demanding, the Sunni states to stay away from the Damascus summit.

"In contemplating whether or not they attend a meeting in Syria, it certainly bears keeping in mind what Syria's role has been to this point in not allowing a Lebanese electoral process to move forward," said US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

Even to invite Lebanon to the Arab league summit was considered a fraught decision by many in Damascus, which has not established an embassy in Beirut and does not recognise the democratically-elected Siniora Government.

Since the end of the Hezbollah-Israel war, the opposition, led by Hezbollah, has been trying to gain a broader representation in parliament.

The parliament has not sat since late 2006 and the opposition speaker, Nabil Berri, has 16 times delayed convening a session to elect a new president to replace pro-Syrian former head of state, Emile Lahoud, who left office last November at the end of his extended term.

"I would note that the invitation is addressed to the Premier Siniora, who is, in fact, acting president," Mr McCormack said. "Why, you might ask, is he acting president? That is because there has not been a presidential election in Lebanon."

Emboldened by Iran and buoyed by the gradual consolidation of the opposition in Lebanon, Syria seems more than willing to play a waiting game.

It rode out US accusations that it was willingly using its borders to fuel the Iraqi insurgency during the bloodiest years of 2004-2005. It still harbours exiled Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshaal, and maintains an uncompromising alliance with Hezbollah.

Damascus sees itself far from being over a barrel. Many analysts in Lebanon, Israel and Saudi Arabia fear the only thing that will break it free from Tehran is the one thing that no one is prepared to offer up, Lebanon.

"These warships can float around off the coast as long as America wants," the Lebanese government official said. "At the end of the day, there's one thing that the Arab world is much better at playing than the West - a waiting game."

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