Analysis

Al Qaeda’s North African node is holding two Austrian tourists who were kidnapped Feb. 22 in Tunisia, according to a statement aired March 10 on Al Jazeera television. The statement warned that other foreign tourists in Tunisia are also at risk of being kidnapped. The group has not yet made demands or announced conditions for the release of the two hostages, but it said that the kidnapping was carried out in response to Israeli military actions in Gaza.

Over the past few years, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has carried out operations in various parts of northern Africa. While Algeria has long been a stronghold for Islamist militant activity, AQIM recently has also carried out limited attacks in Mauritania and Morocco. This latest incident represents not only a further spread of the group geographically but also a shift in tactics to include kidnapping.

According to a statement released by the Austrian Foreign Ministry, the two tourists were last heard from in mid-February when they were in the southern Tunisian city of Matmata. The ministry added that the pair was traveling around the country in an RV with Austrian license plates, and that they might have been headed west, in the direction of the Algerian border. The Algerian border regions in Tunisia are the areas in the country where tourists are most susceptible to kidnapping — several tourists were reported abducted in the Algerian-Tunisian border region in 2002 and 2003, according to the U.S. State Department.

It is unclear exactly where the two were kidnapped, though one possibility is that they became lost and ended up on the Algerian side of the border. Islamist militant activity has been far more extensive in Algeria than in Tunisia, and any number of militant groups probably would have noticed two Austrians driving an RV around the country. In fact, other groups might have carried out the abduction and then later handed the Austrians over to AQIM; that would explain why two weeks passed between their abduction and the announcement that they were being held.

Even if the tourists did not themselves cross the border into Algeria, it is possible that they are now being held there. AQIM has a much more extensive logistics network in place there than in Tunisia, and such a network would be necessary in order to hold a pair of hostages for several weeks.

AQIM’s potential to spread across North Africa has been a concern in the region for some time, but thus far the Algerian node has been the only one to develop successfully. Although there has not yet been an active indigenous Tunisian militant movement, there has been some history of Islamic militants with connections to Tunisia — for instance, Tunisians have been arrested in Algeria for links to militant groups there. However, an exodus of militants from Iraq back to their home countries is certainly cause for greater worry for Tunisia — as well as for other North African countries — as it raises the specter of experienced militants carrying out attacks and kidnappings much closer to home.

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