The Lebanese opposition's threat to possibly call for civil disobedience to oblige the government to resign was a cause for serious concern on a number of levels. In fact, no one can predict the consequences of such a move on the general stability and security of the country.

However, one can foresee some of the negative economic outcomes that may arise from a potential disobedience, particularly with regards to the financial situation of the Lebanese State.

A civil disobedience, in the event of it taking place, would obviously reduce the activity in many of the country's economic sectors. While varying from a sector to the other, it means a further drop in the already falling Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that will translate into adverse conditions for the private sector and a reduction in the number of employment opportunities. This, in turn, would lead to higher unemployment rates, or in other words, harming some of the wealthy, while making Lebanon's poor even poorer.

It is known that the Lebanese economy has achieved extremely positive results in the first half of last year, despite the turbulent political atmosphere and the continuation of the wave of assassinations.

Lebanon has managed once more to win the confidence of Arab investors before the situation had completely settled. In fact, it attracted some of the monetary surpluses from oil-producing Arab countries as a result of higher oil prices, which eventually translated into an acceptable share of direct foreign investors. In this regard, a consensus in forecasts pointed out that economic growth would climb to nearly 6% by the end of the year.

Negative developments that started with the Israeli war in the summer and the ensuing political crisis, however, have turned the picture upside down for the second half of the year, in which official estimates reported a 5% drop in the GDP.

According to a paper submitted by the government to the Paris-3 donors' conference, the State was hoping for an economic rebound from deflation to achieve growth rates of 4% this year (and over the next four years). This ambition, however, is subject to political stability and the implementation of reform measures drawing impetus from political harmony.

The ongoing sit-in at the central district of Beirut seems poised to bring down a quarter of the growth sought after for this year. So will the civil disobedience vaporize whatever remains of this projected growth? Damages will not be limited to economic growth, but will extend further to affect employment and inflation rates, and lead to a deficit in the balance of payments, if not compensated by funds expected this year, following the last Paris conference, which are mainly debts that must be paid to debtors in the future.

The negative impacts may be more clearly estimated on the level of the State's finances, the progress of which has been aborted by the last half of this year. Therefore, we will settle for estimating the potential impact on the State's financial revenues.

Those waving the option of disobedience say that they will call on their supporters to abstain from paying taxes to the State, thus pushing the issue of taxation into the political fray as a means of exerting financial pressure on the government. This is not the first instance in which this kind of pressure has been used against the State. When the government submitted its plans to the Paris-3 conference, the forces of opposition specifically aimed at the tax component of this plan, and focused its campaign on it.

While it is true that the taxation system in Lebanon deserves to be debated and reformed, focusing on this issue as a means of exerting financial pressure on the government remains unacceptable. It is harmful to the nation as a whole, especially because the issue of taxation in Lebanon has already been suffering from being in a tight spot for which no solution was easy to find.

Lebanon was already suffering from fundamental taxation problems; therefore, pushing the issue of taxation into the political struggle will only serve to aggravate the problem.

The chronic taxation problem mainly lies in the weak tax revenues when compared to international standards and the needs of the State. Taxes represented a constant source of budget deficit and the accumulation of the public debt. At the same time, it is never easy for the State to impose more taxes without expecting a backlash from the society, due to the unfairness of the taxation system, in addition to the difficulties already experienced on the institutional level.

The volume of revenues generated by the State is low compared to other countries, even in the Middle East. The comparison becomes even more striking when comparing tax pressures in Lebanon to those in other developing countries.

The ratio between tax revenues and the GDP in Lebanon does not exceed 15% (without accounting for social expenses), whereas this ratio ranges from 35% to 45% in most industrial counties. The problem, however, lies in the distribution of the tax load among the different classes of society, where consumption accounts for nearly two thirds of the tax revenues (a third for industrial countries), compared to 23% for income taxes.

Therefore, it would be unrealistic to expect radical tax reforms that aim to correct the social imbalances in the tax system at this stage, since the current economic recession does not allow for taxing profits of companies or other sources of income.

In light of these complex circumstances, calls to reduce the revenues of the State, through abstaining from the payment of taxes, would only aggravate the financial and economical problems of Lebanon, and will lead to long-term negative consequences that will harm the people of Lebanon, regardless of their political affiliation.

The Lebanese economy at this stage cannot take the brunt of a civil disobedience that paralyzes private and State-owned institutions and that leads to an economic showdown and inflicts serious damage on a public budget that has been fragile for decades.

The serious consequences that may result from a civil disobedience will not only harm the government, but all the political group advocating it, and may even lead to the collapse of the entire Lebanese structure on the heads of all the people of this country.

* Ghassan Al-Ayash is a Lebanese financial expert.