New York - Signing the United Nations agreement on the establishment of a tribunal of an international character to try those involved in the series of political assassinations in Lebanon has had a direct impact on regional talks, like the ongoing talks with Iran, and on bilateral relations, including the relations of Russia and Iran with Syria and Hezbollah.

This agreement, which is being set up, has opened a new chapter in the future of the Tribunal, as it has limited for all the local, regional and international players to one of the following two options: either this Tribunal of an international character, which came as a result of lengthy negotiations between the UN and official legal institutions in Lebanon, or a mandatory International Tribunal under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Such development makes the Iranian government think deeply about its positions toward the Syrian emphatic rejection of the Tribunal, which has topped the list of Syria's priorities. It has even taken priority over the restitution of the Golan Heights that is occupied by Israel. The development also makes the Iranian government reconsider the calculations and mistakes of its allies in Lebanon to decide whether Hezbollah's opposition to the Tribunal deserves Tehran's support, even if it leads to the expansion of sectarian strife and the sparking of sectarian sedition in Lebanon.

This development is taken seriously by those who are preparing for Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Saudi Arabia. The Tribunal has been on the agenda in the secret talks held by the Saudi Arabia and Iranian officials to reach positive results and discuss Iran's role in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq and to explore the possibility of understanding and working together instead of tearing the region apart in sectarian warfare. The Tribunal has overcome a stage and all those who have tried to stop the process know now that there is no going back to the stage of illusionary deals and bargains.

The best thing the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berry, can do is to take the keys of the parliament out of his pocket and agree to convene a session to vote on the agreement. Although there is a petition signed by 70 MPs demanding Berry to convene the session, he refuses to open the doors of Parliament in a way that truly harms the reputation of Lebanon, as well as his personal reputation. Even the justifications and excuses made by Berry are doing him great harm because Syria has contributed to them.

According to a high-ranking official, the UN has made it very clear that there is no room for dealing with the assassinations as being unrelated or for canceling the item that pertains to the accountability in the Tribunal's Statute, since these are classical provisions that are deeply entrenched in the Statute of the Court. The official pointed out that the UN is prepared to clarify all the pre-emptive measures that prevent the court from being turned into a political tool to contribute to the success of the mediation of the Arab League Secretary General, Amr Moussa, between the Lebanese parties. However, this does not mean reopening the Statute for bargains and amendments, unless the opposition parties submit convincing arguments and ideas that justify the amendment of these provisions. If Damascus has such strong arguments that justify canceling the item on the president's responsibility for the subordinate who committed these terrorist acts it should submit them directly to the UN, instead of entrusting another party with this strange mission.

As for the talk about the Tribunal being acceptable as long as it is not politicized, it is a false claim that was dismissed by the UN Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs, Nicolas Michel, by saying: "In no way would we be ready to participate in the establishment of a tribunal that would be a political tool." Furthermore, a high-ranking UN official indicated that if the UN Security Council had thought that the Tribunal is a political tool, it would not have given the green light to the agreement and the Tribunal Statute.

Russia often sympathizes with Damascus and is repeatedly trying to raise Syrian positions during the Security Council deliberations on Lebanon. Nevertheless, Russia has always been a player in the ratification of the agreement on the establishment of the Tribunal of an international character, because the Security Council has unanimously ratified the agreement and the Statute of the Court before the Lebanese government and the UN had signed it. Moreover, Russia and China are part and parcel of the UN Security Council Resolution on the establishment of a tribunal to prosecute those involved in the assassination of PM Hariri and his fellow companions. They have also contributed to the other resolutions that linked between some assassinations and the 14 attempted assassinations that have taken place so far. The agreement, which is waiting the ratification of the parliament, is but an implementation of what the UN Security Council has endorsed in its resolutions.

Therefore, regardless of Moscow's concern and consideration for Damascus, it cannot stop the establishment of the Tribunal, since it has contributed to the UN Resolution. Moreover, Moscow will not like to appear as though it is protecting those involved in crimes classified by the UNSC as terrorist crimes from being tried and impeached.

If those who are hoping to thwart the International Tribunal, either by closing the doors of the parliament to prevent the ratification of the agreement or by additional political assassinations, believe that Russia will veto a resolution stipulating the establishment of an International Court, they are wrong and their miscalculations are erroneous.

Russia will not sacrifice its partnership with the US and with the international community in the fight against terrorism, since Chechnya is at stake. Therefore, it will not veto a resolution under Chapter 7 that imposes a tribunal that will rely on the international investigation, which was launched by the UN Security Council, to reveal the identity of those who ordered, connived and covered up the terrorist operations in Lebanon. Moscow fully understands what the meaning of using its right to veto…thus will refrain.

Likewise, it is impossible for China to sacrifice its strategic objective to burnish its image before the world and acquire a new reputation before hosting the Olympic Games. Thus, China is far from using the veto against the establishment of an International Tribunal.

Even Iran will not be able to appear as though it is blackmailing the international community and protecting whoever is responsible for the assassination of a prime minister by its opposition to the tribunal, regardless of the empty rhetoric over the politicization of the tribunal. If Tehran has "firm arguments" confirming why it believes the Statute of the Court is politicized, it would be generous to submit them, yet will not do anything if the sort. Iran is well-aware that it is a dangerous slope, and it is very keen on safeguarding its priorities in the international arena.

Therefore, Damascus and its allies have only two options: either to stop obstructing the tribunal of an international character or to yield to the authority of the binding Chapter 7 of the UN Charter when establishing the International Tribunal. If it chooses the first option and agrees to launch the self-accountability within the Syrian borders and swiftly implement the UN Security Council resolutions to demonstrate its acquiescence to immediately demarcate the borders with Lebanon, establish formal diplomatic relations between the two countries, prevent the transfer of arms through its borders to the Lebanese and Palestinian militias and stop undermining the sovereignty of the Lebanese State, it could be for Damascus the only way out of the tight corner in which it has put itself.

As well, if Hezbollah wishes to escape the tight corner, its only exit would be through a total overturn on its stances by taking an initiative that will be met by a popular support. The initiative will mainly include putting its weapons at the disposal of the Lebanese army.

The time for Tehran to withdraws its support for Damascus is approaching. As the time for Tehran to redefine the relations between Iran and Hezbollah is also getting closer. If Tehran has sincere desires to turn over a new leaf of understanding and cooperation to prevent the country from sliding into sectarian wars that will eventually cost it dearly, it has no choice but to reshape its relations with Damascus. This requires Tehran to tell Damascus that the strategic alliance between them does not imply providing the cover and protection from prosecution for terrorist political assassinations. Such a cover not only condemns Iran but will impose on the rulers of Tehran a costly protection they cannot sustain. Tehran is also required to urge the Syrian leadership to stop imagining that it is holding regional trump cards and stop betting on the alliance with the Iranian leadership against the Arab trend as a means to escape accountability.

Iran is under scrutiny. The ruling establishment in Tehran realizes that the ongoing talks with Saudi Arabia are a means to break out from the tight corner. If it chooses the contrary, it would have opted for confrontation, not only with its Arab neighbors, but also with neighboring Turkey, the US and the international community, each for specific reasons.

The fact is that Iran cannot make such a confrontation because it is suffering from a huge burden, despite its muscle-flexing strategy. Its economic situation does not allow to launch such a confrontation. In addition, the Iranian regime does not grant so much freedom and democracy to its people allowing to embark on adventures of hegemony beyond its borders. This is not an incidental evaluation, but is based on studies and figures. An architect of the Turkish foreign policy said once that Turkey is not the least concerned about Iran turning into a regional hegemon, since the components of such a superpower are not available to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has failed until now to become a source of inspiration. On the contrary, the Iranian people is lamenting its luck, craving for freedom and envies the democracy in Turkey.

The regional stage is currently before a major juncture: a carrot is being offered to Iran to prompt it to reconsider its policies toward Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. The international community agreed in the Security Council to give Iran the key to putting an end to escalation and confrontation. The five permanent members of the Security Council are waiting to reward Tehran once it declares its willingness to suspend uranium enrichment as a token of goodwill and an indicator of the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.

The ball is in the Iranian court, with regard to both the regional and nuclear files. Nonetheless, the invitation is not open-ended. The issue is not limited to Tehran's relations with Syria and Lebanon. The success of the Saudi sponsorship of the Palestinian reconciliation primarily depends on Iran's strategic political decision and the sincerity of the Iranian intentions toward the Palestinian Cause, instead of exploiting that Cause to grab at trump cards for purposes of sabotage or hegemony. Any decision Tehran may take with regard to Lebanon and Palestine has a direct impact on what it wants in Iraq and its Gulf neighbors.

Hezbollah is waiting for the Iranian decision before taking the next action in Lebanon. This decision could be very positive and worthy of praise.

Should the Iranian leadership feels that its interest requires unleashing sectarian wars in more than one Arab country, beginning with Lebanon, even if this led to its destruction; should it decide that the Palestinian-Palestinian dispute is a chance to foment a civil war between the Palestinians and take the Palestinian Cause away from the Arabs for the sake of Iranian hegemony; and should it choose to protect its allies against any trial, even if they are involved in terrorist assassinations, then the Iranian regime would choose to be tried by its people, its regional environment and the international community.

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