A senior leader in Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party said June 13 that if Hamas does not accept the referendum on the proposed strategy to negotiate with Israel, early elections will be held. While the contention is over Hamas' refusal to moderate its stance toward Israel, Fatah is using the opportunity to try and stage a political comeback -- at which it is not likely to succeed. The pressure from Abbas and continuing attacks from Israel could lead to significant escalations in violence in the Israeli-Palestinian theatre.

Analysis

Former Palestinian National Authority (PNA) Prime Minister Ahmed Qurai said that PNA President Mahmoud Abbas could call for fresh elections if Hamas rejects next month's referendum on a plan for negotiations with Israel that would result in Palestinian statehood. Qurai, who was prime minister before Hamas won the last elections, held Jan. 25, and who remains a senior Fatah leader, said if the referendum passes and Hamas rejects it, Abbas and Fatah will change the government. Qurai also said that if a new government could not win the Hamas-dominated parliament's confidence, fresh parliamentary elections would have to be called. Qurai said that in his opinion, the referendum is no less important than the legislative election.

The issue of how the PNA should proceed with talks with Israel is secondary at this point. Right now, Fatah is using the referendum to try to reverse -- to the extent possible -- its defeat in the Jan. 25 elections. Given that consolidating its hold on power is the immediate goal for the radical Islamist movement Hamas, any move to oust it from power could result in a major flare-up in violence in the Palestinian Territories and Israel. Hamas, knowing full well that attacking Fatah could create further problems for it, likely will stage limited attacks -- possibly including suicide bombings -- against Israel.

For Hamas, the purpose of a renewed wave of anti-Israeli violence will be to force Abbas' hand and get him to back off his efforts to weaken the Islamist group. Just as Hamas used violence against Israel to enter the political system and take control of the parliament and Cabinet, it will use a new wave of violence to return to the position where Fatah accommodated Hamas because Hamas was the only group capable of unleashing or controlling the violence.

In essence, Hamas wants to get back to the point where Abbas realizes that his own political relevance in Israel's eyes depends upon the Islamist group's goodwill. Moreover, Hamas likely is eyeing the PNA presidency; without control of that institution, its political position will always be vulnerable. Therefore, it is unlikely that Fatah will be successful in staging a comeback. Assuming fresh elections were held, the best Fatah could do would be to decrease Hamas' majority in the parliament.

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