Involvement in local politics will "rein in Hizbullah" and likely bring about its self-disarmament, a high-ranking IDF source told The Jerusalem Post Monday. But meanwhile, he said, Israeli soldiers are under serious threat of being kidnapped by the organization.

"We believe that Hizbullah's participation in politics will rein it in," the source said, adding, the process is one that could affect other radicals, such as Hamas and the Iranians.

The reason, he said, is the weakening of the regimes and the rise of the media and internal public pressure. Now the regimes want to have legitimacy among their people.

For Hizbullah, legitimacy is key. And in post-Syria Lebanon that means leaving its weapons behind for a more democratic future.

Hizbullah is limited to three ways to act militarily against Israel to gain legitimacy, he explained. Attacking the disputed Shaba Farms is the most common. The frequent IAF flights over Lebanon are seen as a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and also give a reason for Hizbullah to react. "That's why Hizbullah sent two UAVs into Israel," he said.

Hizbullah also uses the flights as an excuse to fire anti-aircraft guns.

But the most problematic issue for Hizbullah, and therefore for Israel, are the Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails. "They want them back, especially Samir Kuntar [who was involved in the 1979 terrorist attack in Nahariya], and they don't see that going anywhere," said the source. "That means they may kidnap Israeli soldiers to speed up the release of the Lebanese."

Despite the threat of kidnappings and of Hizbullah-supported terror attacks by Palestinians, the military intelligence assessment is that Hizbullah's involvement in politics is the end of its jihad.

"Bottom line, we think that the there are risks and opportunities to the participation of hard-line radical groups in politics," he said.

While their involvement in politics makes it more difficult for the regimes to make compromises and their disarmament is not guaranteed, "we believe that Hizbullah's participation in politics will cause their weapons to get 'rusty' to the point that it won't be able to use them," he said. "Even if it does not want to be, the Hizbullah is becoming more and more political."

The military believes Hizbullah is more likely to disarm itself than Hamas.

"Hamas is involved in a national struggle," he said. "That's why Abu Mazen [Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas] does not have the legitimacy to disarm Hamas."

February, when the European Union debated whether to put Hizbullah on its terror list, was a turning point. Hizbullah had increasingly invested resources in politics following the IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, but it was also teaching and directing Palestinian terrorists.

The EU decided against outlawing Hizbullah "because it is problematic to put any political organization on a terror list, and it was also afraid that doing so would encourage it to continue using terror instead of moving away from it," said the source.

Under pressure, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah "realized that he must reinvent himself," he said, and "[former Lebanese prime minister Rafik] Hariri's assassination gave him the opportunity to make a clear political stand. Suddenly Hizbullah's status skyrocketed in the Lebanese political arena. Nasrallah began appearing with Lebanese flags and not Hizbullah flags. He became a major political player."