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June 29, 2005

Lebanonwire

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With Berri's return, Syrian influence in Lebanon seems as present as ever
By Rosana Bou Monsef

BEIRUT - With President Emile Lahoud in power and the return of Speaker Nabih Berri to Parliament, Syrian influence in Lebanon seems as present as ever. When Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir was asked last week if he thought that Syria was still influential in Lebanon, he did not hesitate to confirm: yes it is.

Observers believe that Syria can only benefit from Lahoud's stay and Berri's return - both victories for Damascus - and that its influence will remain as long as the movement of change triggered by the March 14 demonstration is incapable of altering this fact.

News reports commented on Berri's re-election, which has been expected since the second round of the parliamentary elections, saying Berri resisted the anti-Syria movement by winning the chairmanship of Parliament with the support of a 35 MP bloc made up of Hizbullah, Syrian Nationalist Party, and Baath Party members.

In light of powerful connections between Syria and Lebanon's Shiite community, it is obvious Syria's influence still prevails.

This victory indicates the hour of political change in Lebanon has not yet emerged despite the proclamations trumpeted by the independence intifada on March 14.

Regardless of Berri's pledge to observe a program that meets international standards for change in Lebanon, his re-election does not offer much hope for the Lebanese.

As efforts to restructure the country's power bases begin, Syria is expected to creep into its small neighbor.

Although two months have passed since the withdrawal of Syria's intelligence and military troops, it is still too early to determine whether Syrian influence is over, especially after the parliamentary elections brought some measure of victory for the Shiites.

The Lebanese are as aware of this influence as the foreign countries who seek to maintain pressure on Syria to stop its reinfiltration of Lebanon.

When the name of Saad Hariri, son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was put forward for the post of prime minister, foreign diplomats did not show much enthusiasm; they understood, as did others, that there were two good reasons why he wasn't the best man for the job.

First, because he lacks sufficient political experience and second because his father did not hold close relations with either President Emile Lahoud or Syria.

Any interaction with Syria will be difficult to manage at this stage, considering the national hostility toward Damascus.

This hostility makes it easy to blame Syria for the recent assassinations, as the U.S. and France did. With the CIA and the FBI (as well as French and British security officers) seeking to find any evidence that might link Syria to the assassinations it is difficult to imagine another culprit.

President Emile Lahoud took the initiative of defending Syria during an interview with CNN a couple of days ago, the first such move by a Lebanese official since Syria's pullout.

Lahoud's statements suggested Syria had been harmed by the recent killings and would not have brought this upon themselves. Lahoud instead claimed Israel or Islamic extremists might have been behind the killings. - Daily Star

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