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June 19, 2005

Lebanonwire

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Anti-Syrians battle it out in Lebanon election finale
By Lin Noueihed

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Final voting in Lebanon's general election takes place on Sunday, with voters in the north set to decide whether a Muslim-led anti-Syrian coalition will be given a free hand in the next parliament.

The poll, staggered by region over four weekends, is the first in Lebanon since Damascus pulled its troops out of the country in April. Sunday's final phase, in which over 100 candidates will fight for the remaining 28 parliamentary seats, will decide whether the 128-seat assembly has an anti-Syrian majority for the first time since the 1975-1990 civil war.

Competition is close and tension high.

The anti-Syrian list backed by the son of slain Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri squares off against an unlikely alliance between pro-Syrian figures and Damascus' sworn enemy, former general Michel Aoun.

Aoun's sweeping victory in the Christian heartland of Mount Lebanon in last week's round stunned the disparate movement whose street protests following Hariri's Feb. 14 assassination forced Syria to bow to global pressure and pull out of Lebanon.

Saad al-Hariri's slate must now win 21 of the seats up for grabs in the north to scrape an absolute majority in the house -- a far cry from the commanding two-thirds the anti-Syrian front had predicted would give it more weight in the cabinet.

If Hariri's coalition, which swept the polls in Beirut three weeks ago, fails to secure those seats, it will become just one of three substantial blocs in the assembly, forced to bargain with anti-Syrian rivals and compromise with allies of Damascus.

"The election taking place in the north ... is among the most important in the history of Lebanon and represents a unique opportunity to change for the better," Hariri said on Friday of the final round of polls.

SHIFTING ALLIANCES

Whoever fares better, unlikely alliances that characterised the election are likely to crumble once the results are out.

They will realign into three main blocs -- the anti-Syrian faction led by Hariri, the pro-Syrian group dominated by Shi'ite Muslim Amal and Hizbollah, and Aoun's followers -- will jostle for a say on divisive issues such as President Emile Lahoud's fate and international calls for Hizbollah guerrillas to disarm. A debate has raged throughout the campaign over whether pro-Syrian Lahoud, a centre of controversy since Syria pressured parliament to extend his term last year, should stay or go.

The bloc led by Hariri and Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt hold Lahoud at least indirectly responsible for the elder Hariri's death and want him out. A United Nations investigation into the killing, demanded by that bloc, began this week.

But if it falls short of a parliamentary majority, it will face an uphill struggle getting rid of the president and replacing him with one of its own.

Aoun's success has identified him as the undisputed leader of Lebanon's Christians, making it harder to put forward other names for president, a position traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian.

"This is a decisive battle and is a continuation of last week's battle in the mountains," Aoun told Reuters on Saturday.

"The battle remains between traditionalists who use money to reach power and use sectarian rhetoric and reformists who are committed to their morals and national dialogue."

Seats in the house are divided equally between Christians and Muslims, which includes Shi'ites, Sunnis and the Druze sect.

Hariri is likely to fare well among his Sunni Muslim co-religionists, who make up more than half the 690,000 northerners eligible to vote. About 45 percent are Christians.

Aoun's alliance with pro-Syrian former interior minister Suleiman Franjieh, could appeal to Christians in the area where he commands strong clan loyalties.

Aoun was exiled to France after his "war of liberation" against Syrian forces was crushed in 1990. But he teamed up with pro-Syrian politicians after falling out with fellow anti-Syrian figures, who offered him few seats on their electoral lists.

Those alliances initially shocked many Lebanese but appear to have served Aoun well in Mount Lebanon, where the Christians voted for change after 15 years of Syrian influence.

Hizbollah and Amal have taken 35 seats in the house after sweeping the southern Shi'ite heartland and winning 10 seats in last week's vote in the east. But Shi'ite groups have no role in Sunday's poll as few Shi'ites live in the north. (Reuters)

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