Lebanonwire.com | Lebanon votes in day of reckoning for opposition

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June 19, 2005

Lebanon votes in day of reckoning for opposition
by Nagib Khazzaka

ATTENTION - ADDS official turnout estimate ///

TRIPOLI, Lebanon - Lebanese voted Sunday in a decisive final round of elections with the main opposition bloc which led the campaign to end Syrian domination in an uphill battle to secure a parliamentary majority.

The four-round elections are the first since neighbouring Syria ended its three-decade troop presence in April amid the political turmoil that followed the assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri.

About 700,000 people in two northern constituencies were eligible to vote for the 28 seats still to be filled in the 128-member parliament.

The list of Saad Hariri, whose father Rafiq's murder in February sparked the anti-Damascus campaign, needed to win as many as 21 of the seats to be sure of controlling the legislature.

Opposing him was an unlikely alliance between Christian firebrand and former exile Michel Aoun and a raft of pro-Syrian figures.

With 21 seats already in the bag from previous rounds, Aoun threatens to make himself an indispensable kingmaker in the new legislature and stake a claim to the presidency, if and when under-fire pro-Syrian incumbent Emile Lahoud steps down.

Results were not expected before Monday, although in previous rounds victory has been conceded on polling day evening.

A first official estimate put turnout at 48 percent, well up on the 40 percent recorded in the last elections in 2000, but with wide variations between localities.

In a boost for Hariri, participation reached 42 percent in the main northern city of Tripoli, where turnout had been sufficiently low two hours before the close of polls that he had issued an anxious televised appeal to late voters.

"If you don't vote, I won't be able to change anything," he had warned.

It remained unclear though whether the last-minute rush to vote had been enough to tip the balance.

Should Hariri's ticket triumph, the 35-year-old businessman turned politician could become prime minister, following in the footsteps of his slain father who held the post five times.

But a good showing for Aoun would leave him holding the balance of power between Hariri and the pro-Syrian Shiite alliance of Amal and Hezbollah which holds the remaining 35 seats.

The fate of Hezbollah's military wing, which still patrols south Lebanon despite a UN Security Council resolution demanding that the Lebanese army take over, will be one of the key issues facing the new parliament.

Hariri has defended the "resistance" but Aoun has called for compliance with Resolution 1559.

Lebanon can ill afford an extended period of political uncertainty -- the turmoil following February's massive blast badly hit Lebanon's economy, already burdened with a massive national debt of some 35.5 billion dollars, making a swift return to political stability imperative.

The central bank warned last week that it expected gross domestic product to fall this year with inflation of four percent outstripping growth of two percent.

Security was tight for the election in a region where Syrian troops held sway for years.

The official ANI news agency reported some minor incidents, including a man arrested in Tripoli after a grenade was found on him, and an exchange of fire between soldiers and a passing car.

In the Syrian border town of Abbudieh, an AFP photographer saw security forces intervene after rival supporters exchanged blows and smashed car windscreens.

In a vitriolic campaign, both sides had repeatedly attacked each other's anti-Syrian credentials, with Aoun accusing Hariri and his allies of being belated converts to the cause, while they took aim at his pro-Damascus allies.

Hariri's huge personal fortune also inevitably fanned allegations of vote buying.

As he cast his vote in Tripoli, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati rejected Hariri bloc accusations that a continuing Syrian intelligence presence had intimidated voters.

"The voting has been completely free," insisted Miqati, who was approved as a compromise figurehead by the opposition despite his links with Damascus.

"There's been no intervention by Syria to influence voters. There are no Syrian agents at work."

European and other foreign observers were monitoring the conduct of the vote which the international community had demanded be held on time.