BEIRUT, Lebanon - Lebanon’s political factions on Thursday launch the most high-profile talks since the end of the civil war, but hopes are slim that they can find a way out of the country’s worst political crisis in the last 15 years.

The talks are expected to tackle contentious issues that have threatened to paralyse the government and block much-needed reforms for the past year, including the fate of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and that of Hizbollah guerrillas’ arms.

Both issues have come to the fore since last year’s killing of ex-Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri, which led to Syrian forces leaving Lebanon after three decades and an anti-Syrian coalition sweeping to victory in general elections.

Most Lebanese leaders -- Christian and Muslim, pro- and anti-Syrian -- are to attend seven to 10 days of talks, the most high-profile meeting since the end of 1975-1990 civil war.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri says “national dialogue” was the only way out of the deadlock, but diplomats and analysts say wide differences among the parties may hamper its success.

“The talks can succeed only when each party realises that it cannot settle the situation to its favour without offering compromises,” one Arab diplomat told Reuters. “Until now it does not seem that they have come to this conclusion.”

The left-wing daily As-Safir was more negative.

“The question we should be asking is: What will be the likely scenario after the dialogue’s failure?” asked Joseph Samaha, the newspaper’s editor. “Seven or eight days of talks could end by reaching a calm or a truce, but saying it will offer cures to Lebanon’s problems is an illusion.”

Paying others’ bills

The anti-Syrian coalition raised the stakes this month when it launched a campaign to remove Lahoud who, backed by Syria, has vowed to stay in office till his terms ends in 2007.

Analysts say a key reason for pessimism over the talks is that Lebanon has become a front in the ongoing dispute between Western powers on the one hand and Syria and Iran on the other.

The United States and France co-sponsored a 2004 U.N. Security Council resolution, which demanded the disarmament of militias, including Hizbollah which is backed by Syria and Iran. Syria still wields strong influence in Lebanon.

Washington also accuses Syria and Iran of interfering in Iraq and backing Palestinian militants against Israel.

The West is also at odds with Tehran over its nuclear programme, fearing it may be developing an atomic bomb.

“We live in a region witnessing major conflicts, from Palestine to Iraq to Iran and Syria, without reasonable settlements in the horizon,” said Samaha.

“All these conflicts meet in Lebanon to a certain extent. It’s the Syrian-Iranian axis against the US-French one.”

Former President Amin Gemayel, a member of the anti-Syrian coalition, ruled out reaching an agreement with Hizbollah over its weapons without consulting the U.N. Security Council.

Hizbollah has repeatedly rejected disarming and also opposes Lahoud’s impeachment. Its deputy leader has urged the government to resign.

Berri, also a close ally of Damascus, told Reuters last week no one had presented him with a constitutional route to impeach Lahoud. He said the talks would also tackle Lebanon’s relations with Syria and the U.N. inquiry into Hariri’s murder.

The ongoing U.N. inquiry has already implicated Syrian officials and their Lebanese allies, including four generals loyal to Lahoud, in the murder. They have all denied any role. (Reuters)