A political earthquake struck the Palestinian territories when Hamas won a majority of seats in the Jan. 25 parliamentary elections. Hamas members may be feverishly celebrating the election results, but the top brass of the Islamist militant movement realizes it is in a major predicament. The government formation process is going to take a considerable amount of time -- time that will be filled with intensive negotiating and an excessive amount of chaos in the Palestinian territories.

Analysis

The Hamas movement won more than 50 percent of the vote in the Jan. 25 Palestinian elections, sweeping to victory over the ruling Fatah party. Though official results have not been released, Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, said the group has taken more than 70 seats in parliament, giving it a majority in the 132-seat body.

Prime Minister Ahmed Qurai of Fatah and his Cabinet have submitted their resignations, saying that Fatah will be “a loyal opposition and rebuild the party.” Fatah may sound like a gracious loser, but its motives are not quite as lucid. Fatah's old brass is undoubtedly unhappy with the idea that the government it has dominated has come under the control of its Islamist rivals. Fatah likely is telling Hamas leaders that the government is all theirs simply because Fatah knows that Hamas is unable to govern on its own.

Hamas' core dilemma is that it cannot advance politically and at the same time disarm. Its plan was to make a strong showing in the election, but with Fatah in the lead to take the senior Cabinet positions -- including the Prime Ministry and the foreign affairs and economic portfolios -- responsible for dealing with the United States and Israel. Hamas would then pursue its long-term strategy of dominating the social and security apparatus in the Palestinian government, which include the defense, interior, health and social welfare portfolios, as it gradually moderates its militant image.

Fatah is fully aware that Hamas is in a complicated position and is likely holding out -- claiming that it will not join in any Cabinet that is led by Hamas -- in an attempt to weaken Hamas' position as much as possible before a deal is brokered to form a governing coalition. Fatah has Washington's support in this, as U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed to Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in a Jan. 26 phone call.

Though all the major players -- Hamas, Israel and the United States -- are still a bit numb from the shock of the election results, Washington has essentially accepted the reality of Hamas becoming a major force to be reckoned with in the Palestinian arena. In a Jan. 26 press conference at the White House, U.S. President George W. Bush afforded some degree of legitimacy to Hamas as he discussed in detail the spread of “liberty in the Middle East,” saying the Palestinian people voted for change and an end to corruption. The election results, he said, honored those wishes. Bush declined to give a straight answer on whether Washington would negotiate directly with Hamas. Instead, he said it is too soon to tell and that Washington would not be able to deal with a political party that "articulates" the destruction of U.S. ally Israel in its platform.

Hamas is not about to completely change its tune and lay down its arms now that it has political power at its disposal. Hamas will make it clear that it has largely abided by the yearlong informal cease-fire with Israel, even more so than militants affiliated with Fatah. The group already has indicated that it will modify its charter, and likely will do so to compensate for its unexpected wins. After winning, Hamas also offered to extend the cease-fire if Israel reciprocates.

Meanwhile, the coming weeks will bring intense negotiations, while chaos in the Palestinian territories will exceed normal amounts as clashes break out between members of Fatah and Hamas. In the end, a coalition likely will emerge, with Fatah retaining the major interface positions in the Cabinet.

This article is published at Lebanonwire by agreement with www.stratfor.com, the world's leading private intelligence provider. For any questions or comments on this article please write to analysis@stratfor.com

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