JERUSALEM, May 24 (AFP) - Five years after hastily withdrawing from southern Lebanon after a bloody 22-year occupation, Israel is once again wrestling with similar problems as it moves to disentangle itself from the Gaza Strip, where it has been mired for nearly 40 years.

On May 24, 2000, Israel completed the withdrawal of its forces from southern Lebanon and redeployed its troops along the internationally-recognised border between the two countries in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 425.

The unilateral move saw Israel ending its 22-year occupation of the territory following an increasingly bloody guerrilla war with the Lebanese Shiite militia, Hezbollah.

Despite fears that the withdrawal would lead to heavy bloodshed along the border, relative calm has prevailed, despite sporadic shooting incidents, mostly in the flashpoint Shebaa Farms area.

Five years on, Israeli decision-makers are now wrangling with similar concerns as they push forward with plans to evacuate all troops and Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip, which has been occupied by Israel for nearly 40 years.

Concerns are rife that the historic pullout, which is due to start in mid August, will be seized on by militant groups such as the radical Hamas movement, as a resounding victory in the struggle against occupation.

Such was the view in the Arab world five years ago, which saw the May 24 departure as a lesson that even the Israeli army, considered as the region's most powerful, could be defeated by a tiny guerrilla force.

In the Gaza Strip, stronghold of the radical Hamas movement, Israel is also wrestling with fears that the withdrawal will strengthen the group's standing, both militarily and politically, and lead to a dramatic increase in cross-border attacks.

As the Yediot Aharonot daily pointed out Sunday, Israel's messy foray into Lebanon only served to strengthen Hezbollah.

"When we entered Lebanon, Hezbollah was a small, extremist fringe terror organisation; today it is a central political power in Lebanon that has served as a model for emulation by Hamas," it said.

"The immediate lesson that needs to be applied to the next unilateral disengagement is not to repeat the mistake we made with Hezbollah in allowing it to establish a balance of terror along the northern border with us."

Although the Lebanon pullout generated a sense of relative stability along Israel's northern border, political commentators are much less optimistic that the Gaza withdrawal will achieve the same end.

"It is much more complicated," says political analyst Shlomo Brom, from the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University.

"You cannot look at the Gaza Strip in isolation but as part of Israel's relationship with the Palestinians. We are not withdrawing fully from the Palestinian territories so we are not solving the problem. In that context, the continued use of force is perceived as legitimate."

Although the pullout did increase the prestige of Hezbollah, which was perceived as forcing Israel out of the territory, it was an essentially short term phenomenon, says Brom.

"The most important effect was that Hezbollah lost any internal and external legitimacy to continue the fight against Israel because Israel withdrew to the international border."

Despite the many differences between the Lebanon pullout and the planned Gaza evacuation, similarities do exist, particularly in relation to the development of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Known primarily for its military operations, Hezbollah is also a major provider of social services to thousands of impoverished Shiites, and with 12 seats in the Lebanese parliament, it remains an important player in the political scene.

Like Hezbollah, Hamas has led a bloody armed campaign against Israel but has also won broad support, particularly in Gaza, for its social programme.

And now, Hamas is, for the first time, also looking to enter the political process by participating in the legislative elections on July 17.

"If, after some time, the integration of Hamas into the domestic Palestinian political process succeeds, one can imagine a situation in which they will gradually reconcile themselves to the idea of having some kind of settlement with Israel," says Brom.

Uzi Arad, director of the institute of policy and strategy at the Herzliya Inter-disciplinary Centre predicts a far more dire scenario.

"While it is true that the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon did not result in any armed escalation between Israel and Lebanon, it had a spill-over effect: it gave a boost to the Palestinians to unleash their intifada three or four months later," he points out.

"The logical consequence of the withdrawal is the resumption of the third intifada," Arad warned.

Hamas, he notes, is gaining both in military strength, by using the current calm period to rearm, and in political strength, with expectations it will chalk up significant gains in the elections.

"The great irony is while Israel is voluntarily ceding land, and getting nothing back in return, Hamas is actually hardening its position and weakening the Palestinian moderates

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