The political rise of Saad al-Hariri, the 35-year-old son of assassinated Lebanese ex-Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri seems inexorable. More than a week before an election has even taken place, his list has already gained nine out of the 19 seats in Beirut by default, after a number of other candidates withdrew.

The younger Mr Hariri is predicted to bag a landslide victory in 29 May’s first-round ballot, the first to be held in Lebanon without direct Syrian influence for 33 years. His anticipated success will be due at least in part to the death of his father, which outraged the country on 14 February this year.

Many Lebanese people blame Syria for the elder Hariri’s shooting, and, although Damascus denies any involvement, the assassination was nonetheless instrumental in ending 29 years of Syrian domination, formally concluded on 26 April.

Triumphant but inexperienced

Despite a general prediction of triumph, some observers have remarked, however, that Saad al-Hariri lacks concrete political experience. George Asseily, Chair of Oxford University’s Centre for Lebanese Studies concurs:

“He’s a young man. He’s mostly lived in Saudi Arabia where he ran his father’s investments empire […] He has no political experience as such, he has never been involved in politics but he seems to be very keen and very willing to learn.”

Saad al-Hariri, like his father a businessman with many links in the Arab world, was chosen by his family to carry the political baton. His election ticket says that, although Syrian troops have withdrawn from Lebanon, the battle is not over but merely beginning, and his list will fight for reform. But, says George Asseily, an overall feel of poor policy-formation is the younger Hariri’s weakest point:

“There is no clear policy forward on any level, either political, social or economic. The only thing that people are talking about is national reconciliation – though obviously this is very important. So, I think the first objective is […] ‘we have to forgive each other and the errors of the past, and we have to look forward with a view to rebuilding a new Lebanon on a democratic basis, and with real opportunities for everybody equally.’”

Forging alliances

A lack of political experience and even an absence of policies will probably be unable to stop Saad al-Hariri from dominating parliament. He is forecast to win 35 seats, thus making him leader of the biggest group in parliament. Mr Asseily thinks the predictions are on the right track: “I think they’re probably right. His list in Beirut is almost already assured, and he’s trying to forge alliances in the north and in the mountains with other political leaders. He will have to forge alliances with the Lebanese forces, and with other traditional leaders. If he’s able to do that, then obviously the elections will be just a formality.”

Time to wait

Commentators also predict that parliamentary success will not be enough for Saad al Hariri, that he intends to follow his father’s path fully and stand for prime minister. When asked the question directly by the Reuters News Agency, Mr Hariri’s reply – “You said it” - was somewhat ambiguous. Could it be that, echoing the election campaign, this is not the end but merely the beginning of Saad al-Hariri’s politial career? George Asseily thinks so:

“I’m sure he’s got ambitions, whether he will [act on these] in a month or two or a year or two remains to be seen.” But he urges him not to act too hastily “If I were to advise him, I would tell him to wait maybe another year or two, before he gets a bit more experience.”

First published by Radio Nederland Wereldomroep: http://www2.rnw.nl