BEIRUT, April 28 (AFP) - Lebanon's "Cedar Revolution" which pushed Syrian soldiers out of the country after 29 years of domination may be the catalyst for reforms in the rigid Damascus regime.

"I am hoping for a new reform movement in Syria and that this country benefits from the Lebanese experiment" in people's participation in political life, said key Lebanese opposition leader Walid Joumblatt.

The February 14 assassination of popular former prime minister Rafiq Hariri sparked "people power" demonstrations that brought down the Beirut government and led to the end of Syria's military presence.

"Rather than asking whether Syria will influence Lebanon in the future, the question is how Lebanon will influence a dissipating Syria," wrote Daily Star editorialist Michael Young.

"Lebanon must ... push for a post-Baathist Syria ... It must encourage more Syrian opposition figures to write in its papers ... it must advance Syrian economic openness."

Despite the radical differences between Lebanon's parliamentary system and the iron-fisted Baath party rule in neighboring Syria, developments in either country has always influenced the other.

The two nations share a common history, under Ottoman rule before leading the fight against the French mandate to gain independence at around the same time in the 1940s.

The 1975-1990 war in Lebanon provided fertile ground for Syria to extend its influence over its smaller neighbor.

"It was not insignificant that former Syrian president Hafez al-Assad named, before his death in 2000, his son Bashar to be in charge of Lebanese affairs," a Western diplomat said.

The strategy was to consolidate the influence of Bashar al-Assad -- who succeeded his father to become the country's president -- both in Lebanon and back home in Syria.

But the move backfired on Syria following strategic errors in its Lebanon policy, mainly last September's unpopular extension of the mandate of Damascus protege President Emile Lahoud, said the International Crisis Group (ICG).

"The Baathist regime is more isolated than ever, on the verge of losing a major regional asset, and with serious questions about how long it can survive as is," according to the Brussels-based think-tank.

Touching on internal divisions, it quoted an advisor to the Syrian government as saying a number of security and intelligence officials had been replaced with young members of the tiny Alawite sect of the Assad family.

Many hope the Syrian regime would adopt much-awaited reforms at the Baath party congress in June, but a French official asked by ICG remained skeptical.

"It is a corrupt, mafia-like, anachronistic regime that is incapable of reforming itself. Alone among countries in the region, it has not taken a single step to modernize its political system," he said.

But Jumblatt, in an interview with AFP, has warned against any effort to destabilise a weakened Syria. "The security of Syria is linked to that of Lebanon, and the security of Lebanon is linked to that of Syria," he said.

Following Syria's inglorious exit from Lebanon, Assad now faces a host of challenges on the foreign and domestic fronts.

"Bashar is neither a fox nor a lion. But if he is not the man of the moment, who could that be?" asked a Western diplomat, alluding to the reputed shrewdness of the elder Assad, whose family names means lion in Arabic.

At the same time, "the opposition, which is still a prisoner of the past, has no real following", acknowledged an opposition figure, Hassan Abbas.

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