The situation in Lebanon in the past few weeks have challenged everyone's imagination in terms of political scenarios; some would not have thought that the Lebanese, a deeply divided and sectarian society, can stand united and raise in one voice their dissatisfactions in regard to Syria's military and intelligence presence in the country for more than two decades. Others have dreamed about the day of the liberation from all foreign powers, be it Israel or Syria.

Things have changed on the Lebanese political stage; some moves are in the right direction, while others are still uncertain. It is already a fact that there is an opposition who enthusiastically lobbies for a full Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. In this context they are asking for:

• A transparent investigation in Hariri's assassination case.
• The resignation of the pro-Syrian loyalists who are occupying high-ranking positions.
• Free, democratic Parliamentary elections in May supervised by international observers
• The international community support from the US, to France, Russia and the Arab world to pressure President Assad to comply with the Taef Accord

It is yet uncertain:

• Hezbollah's position in the midst of the current changes.
• Amal's position - will it join the opposition, will it try the middle path, as Hezbollah seems to be doing, or will it remain in the pro-Syrian camp?
• If Karami will succeed in his attempt to create a national unity transitional government

As a reaction to the street manifestations and sit-ins in Lebanon and around the world for a free and independent Lebanon, Hezbollah organized in Beirut a massive pro-Syrian demostration. While, it is obvious that the initial aim was to prove that not all Lebanese dislike President Assad's policies in Lebanon, the fact of the matter is that Hezbollah only succeeded to raise some legitimate questions in regard to their loyalty and future intentions.

Hezbollah is on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations and has been singled out by President Bush and others as one of the biggest obstacles to peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians by sponsoring attacks against Israel.

The Shiite Muslim group is funded and armed by Iran and receives support from Syria. It began, as an anti-Israel militia but is now also a political party with deputies in Parliament and a network of charities.

No one disputes the fact that Hezbollah represents an important and powerful trend on the Lebanese and Arab Street, and their nationalist feelings can only be appreciated. However, the fact that they were waving the picture of the Syrian President and shouted pro-Syrian and pro-Assad slogans raises the question: Whose side are they on? No one doubts the high political profile they have achieved, the struggle to liberate the South, or their social oriented political platform. But, by shouting anti-American, anti-Israeli and pro-Syrian not pro-Lebanese slogans is certainly not the right way to show their loyalty towards Lebanon. On the contrary, their rally produced confusion and controversy both at home and abroad.

Therefore, the official reaction to Nasrallah's rally statement did not take long to appear. The European Parliament branded Lebanon's Hezbollah as a "terrorist" group and called for a prompt action of the European Union Ministers on the matter. The resolution states that the "European Parliament considers that clear evidence of terrorist activities by Hezbollah exists and the EU Council should take all necessary steps to curtail them."

Sheikh Nasrallah speech was rather moderate taking in consideration the purpose of the rally, and it pointed out the following:

• Hezbollah agrees with the redeployment to the Bekaa Valley, while a complete withdrawal should be further negotiated with the new Lebanese government.
• Reject the disarming of their militia.
• Hezbollah, too condemns the assassination of former PM Rafiq Al Hariri.
• Any possible negotiations with Israel should include Syria, as well taking in consideration that by one side Lebanon is flanked by Israel and on the other side by Syria.
• Hezbollah sustains the unity of Lebanon, urges the Lebanese not to repeat the past mistakes and asks for a broader dialogue and negotiations

Hezbollah is clearly under a lot of pressure to help unite the Lebanese, not to further divide them. The disagreement comes when their militia's issue is tackled. The right move in this context would be to lay down the arms, let the Lebanese national army do its job, and become exclusively a political party. As long as it will keep its militia it will still be considered a terrorist group and more important, it may irremediably divide the Lebanese community. On the other hand, as a political actor it would be one of the most successful, if not the most successful, and it will be able to directly influence the Lebanese domestic and external policy.

Nonetheless, is it possible that the United States, the European Union and even some Lebanese got it all wrong? What if, Hezbollah's aim is to drive the Syrians out of the country, but they are prudent enough to wear gloves while doing it? That may be the reason why they have organized an impressive pro-Syrian rally; in order to ensure a less humiliating Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. After all, even if Lebanon will choose the path toward democracy, it will still have a long border with Syria.

In this context, Hezbollah together with the opposition should concentrate on what they have in common and not on the issues where their interests differ from one another. Only Syria can take advantage of an internal crisis in Lebanon and this is not serving any Lebanese party, movement or resistance short or long-term interests.

President Bush during his recent meetings with the European leaders warned that it is not in the interest of US, or Europe for Iran and Syria to be permitted to fund,"Terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, which has the desire to stop the Middle East peace process from going forward."

On the other hand, Hezbollah such as Hamas in the Palestinian territories is a strong political force. While the Bush administration acknowledges that, it is not willing to change its policy towards it. Not yet, and not in a vocal manner.

Scott McClellan, the White House Spokesperson said, "Our view on Hezbollah has not changed. Our goal, which is shared by the international community, is to see Syria get out of Lebanon, which is called for in Security Council resolution 1559. We want to see free and fair elections without outside intimidation and outside interference."

Lebanon's president Emile Lahoud encouraged by the massive pro-Syria demonstration organized by Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Nasrallah reinstated Omar Karami as Prime Minister, after less then two weeks after the Damascus-backed leader stepped down under popular and international pressure.

The move ensured Syria's continued influence in Lebanese politics. Syria's allies' felt they have the momentum in the political crisis and President Lahoud's decision appeared to be in part political jockeying to show who sets the agenda as Syria's troop redeployment to the South begun.

The Lebanese people may have nothing to lose or gain for that matter, from Karami's reinstatement in power, but Damascus is trying hard to prove that it can rule Lebanon without any military presence. In his speech addressing the Syrian Parliament, President Assad openly declared: "Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon does not mean the absence of Syria's role. Syria's strength and its role in Lebanon are not dependent on the presence of its forces in Lebanon."

Omar Karami called for political dialogue and said he will try to form a Cabinet that includes all factions. He warned that a political vacuum would eventually have a negative impact on Lebanon's precarious economy status.

"The difficulties we all know cannot be confronted without a government of national unity and salvation. Therefore, I call on every one of all national forces to take part in a national dialogue on the table of the Cabinet and I am not putting any conditions. I will not form a Cabinet of one color."

Karami's previous Cabinet, which governed from late October until he resigned in the Parliament extraordinary session on The 28th of February, was among the most pro-Syrian government Lebanon has witnessed since the end of the civil war. The American State Department used to describe Omar Karami's Cabinet as "Made in Syria."

On the other hand, if the opposition refused to nominate a candidate for the Prime Minister post, it was their mistake - they should have proposed someone with chances of being accepted by the other camp, as well. How can their demands be implemented, if there is no government to lead the changes?

In an interview with the Al Arabiya TV, Walid Jumblatt said that Karami's reinstatement amounts to an extension of the crisis and fails to open the door to dialogue. However, the opposition will give him a chance. "After all, Karami does not control anything. The one who controls the state is Lahoud and behind him the Syrian intelligence." The US State Department spokeswoman Darla Jordan said, "This new government should reflect the will of the Lebanese people, not of Damascus. There should be no further attempt by the governments of Syria and Lebanon to intimidate or sideline the Lebanese opposition in the run up to parliamentary elections."

The key to win the internal struggle from Lebanon is to have a view in perspective, thus concentrating on the immediate goals of stabilising the country, ousting Syria and preparing the May elections. Everything else can wait.

The most likely scenario is that in spite of President Assad's tactics to buy some more time of regional manoeuvrings, Syria will eventually pull out completely and Hezbollah will disarm its militia, if it's goal is to see Lebanon among the civilized, democratic world countries.

Manuela Paraipan received a Political Science degree in Romania, concentrating on Arab/Muslim domestic and external policy. She has been published in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Times, World Security Network (WSN), World Press, Yemen Times and other publications. She has also been invited as a speaker at multiple political conferences. In addition to Romanian and English, Ms. Paraipan speaks French, Spanish and Italian. She wrote this article for Lebanonwire.

Her web site can be found at www.manuelaparaipan.org.

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