Has another political tsunami begun? Or has the "Orange Revolution" been exported from Ukraine to the Middle East? We should be cautious with our euphoria.The game is not over yet.Without a doubt, though, the winds of change have reached this region.

Not too long ago, political pundits - especially in Western Europe - made jokes about President George W.Bush and his fight for democracy and freedom in this "arc of instability."

Now the assassination of Hariri, who led the opposition against Lebanon's Syria-dependent government, might be seen as a historic turning point in Lebanon and beyond.There is no smoking gun to prove that Syria was involved in the assassination, but the majority of Lebanese are convinced that Syria launched this attack or, at least, did nothing to stop it.

The magnitude of this bomb attack was too big for an individual suicide bomber.The first victim of the "Lebanese intifada" was Prime Minister Omar Karameh.His supporters within Lebanon were surprised to see that instead of fighting for his position, he chose to resign.

Will Lebanon's Syrian-backed President Emile Lahoud be the next victim? Will the secret services -- with support from Syria -- strike back with the police force? What will the Syrian and Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah, or Party of God, militia do, being afraid of losing their safe haven and platform for their attacks against Israel? Will Syria's President Bashar Assad be able to contain the dangerous developments in Lebanon at Syria's border? Any political system in Lebanon faces the challenge of balancing the religious and ethnic groups.As stated in the Lebanese National Pact, the president must be Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni and the speaker of the parliament must be a Shiite.

What are the next challenges? They are two-fold: President Emile Lahoud must now form a "transition government."And parliamentary elections should take place in May 2005 Until now, Syria and pro-Syrian Lebanese officials have stubbornly refused to take United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 -- which calls for the removal of all foreign troops, including Syrian forces from Lebanon -- into consideration.

The resolution also calls the dissolution of all militias in Lebanon and the election of a new president without external influence and pressure.

Assad's announcement that he will start the withdrawal within the next weeks was met with skepticism in Lebanon.Syria's preferred excuse is the existence of the Taif Accord, which legalized an otherwise illegal foreign occupation of the Syrians.However, the Taif Accord did not and does not provide a solution to Lebanon's problems.

When Hariri, then prime minister, participated in the Saudi port city of Jeddah at the Economic Forum held in 2004, he spoke about his vision of rebuilding Lebanon.After many years of civil war, Lebanon managed to stabilize its economy to a certain extent.In 1992, Lebanon's debt was approximately $2.5 billion at a time when the government's revenue was less than $350 million.

To a large extent, the economic recovery of Lebanon was possible due to Hariri's strategy of attracting foreign investors, thus consolidating confidence in Lebanon's business potential and in its banking system.He stressed the importance of having a united, Lebanese political class in order to increase foreign investments in the country.

This optimistic program is still attainable.Once the political changes are made, the government will easily be able to implement the financial reforms initiated by Hariri.Without major fiscal reform, Lebanon will once again be on the edge of a terrible financial crisis.

The West should support the people in Lebanon to help them find their way to democracy and freedom.

Dieter Farwick is global editor in chief of World Security Network and the former director of the German Federal Armed Forces Intelligence Office.