By Dr. Assem Safieddine, Dr. Dima Jamal and Maya Daouk

This is the first of a series of articles written on the brain drain for The DailyStar

Emigration from Lebanon has exisisted since the 19th century, however; a major wave of around 900,000 people emigrated during the 15 years of civil war from 1975-1990, in addition to years 1991-1993 that were also prominent dates for emigration movements. This trend slowed gradually in 1994 and was approximately constant from 1995-2000.
There are no exact statistics about the number of Lebanese emigrants however; it was estimated for the last 10 years, to be between 200,000 and 300,000 people according to a study conducted by Information International in Lebanon. Moreover, the average number of official emigrants per embassy report is estimated to be 13,800 per year.
In the past the majority of emigrants were Christian, but now Muslims are catching up especially Shiites. Emigration now touches all regions and religions however, religious minorities are the most demographically affected by it.
This has many implications as the Lebanese Constitution and political system are founded on a confessional basis and emigration could represent a threat to minorities and affect the proper establishment of coexistence among the Lebanese people.
The mix of subcultures linked to the 16 different legally recognized religious group (5 Muslim and 11 Christian) and the different ethnic groups (88 percent Arab, 6 percent Armenian and 4 percent others) is an enriching factor that Lebanon should not lose.
We should assess emigration trends per age group and gender in order to shed some light on the possible consequences of emigration on our demographic constitution.
According to the Central Administration of Statistics in 1998, the proportion of the Lebanese population in the age range 20 to 44 is 38.7 percent and represents 82.6 percent of emigrants. This means that we are losing our productive population to developed countries leaving behind the young and elderly, thus severely impeding the economic growth of Lebanon. And if the same trends of emigration persist, Lebanon will be facing a critical future due to the aging factor. In 2001 83 percent of visa applicants were men which contributes to one of the most important factors leading to delayed marriages from an average age of 29 years for males and 23 years for females in 1970 to respectively 31 years and 27.5 years in 1996.
This factor reflects the deficit of male partners particularly for females having completed higher education. International migration affects young males more than females, as evident from the sex ratio of males to females for the age group 25-29 years of 0.95 that is there are 9.5 males in the age group for every 10 females. Furthermore, since in  Lebanese culture women tend to look for mates who are at least five years older, comparing single males 30-34 years of age to single females 25-29 years is stunningly low; below 0.7 which means that the probability for females in this category to find mates is less than 70 percent.
Consequently, such changes will have a significant impact on fertility. The reasons will be that many currently single women may stay permanently single and/or that the reproductive period of those who marry later will be shorter since the fecundity of women decreases with age (late age at marriage, 35 years and above, is associated with lower fecundity). The impact of emigration on fertility rates could have positive implications and help Lebanon achieve its demographic transition.
The most educated persons represent the highest percentage of emigrants and 46.3 percent of university graduates over 20 years of age are emigrants versus 13.9 percent residents. Further more, according to Canadian and American statistics, specialists, technicians and professionals represent the highest proportions of emigrants followed by executives and administrative personnel.
These figures reflect the extent and severity of the brain drain in Lebanon. This is most likely to persist since according to a survey conducted by Information International in 2001, visa applicants for emigration represent 60.7 percent of the total and 60.1 percent were university graduates, while applications for education represent 9.8 percent, most of who will not return upon completion of studies. The highest proportion of visa applicants was among Muslim Sunnis followed by Shiites then Maronites.
The brain drain is a worldwide problem that has been seriously addressed in many countries but not in Lebanon. Our government seems to ignore the threat of loosing its only competitive advantage to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries.
Brain drain has a range of implications but most importantly it has an economic implication on Lebanon since its only chance to achieve its economic transition is through its educated people. But the Lebanese people despite their love of their country could not find any incentive to stay.
People are willing to live away from their friends and families for professional motives. Mothers and fathers are sacrificing years of their lives investing in their children to end up losing them to a strange nation. Young Lebanese are deprived of the chance to give back to their own community as they are moving and settling far away.
On top of all this, Lebanon is facing a critical economic situation. Unless the economic wheel turns again, we will eventually suffer detrimental costs. We need our educated people back! We need their knowledge and expertise to develop our country and not other’s. We need our entrepreneurs back to start new ventures and hopefully be able to export our products and services and help Lebanon overcome its endemic deficit through export revenues. Moreover, by losing its middle class, Lebanon is losing its most productive group that constitutes the bulk of taxpayers. Brain drain is also disrupting our demographic composition by targeting mainly males between the ages of 20 to 44 and thus depriving Lebanon from its active population. Furthermore, brain drain is changing our ethnic and religious diversity that constitute a powerful factor for innovation and creativity.
This sheds light on the numerous implications of brain drain. This issue should be a concern of every Lebanese citizen since it affects almost every Lebanese family. We should urge our government to at least conduct more research on this topic and provide us with accurate figures in order to assess the extent and the severity of this social, economic and political problem. We also urge our government to make proper economic reforms in order to improve the Lebanese economy and to revive our entrepreneurial culture in order to give its people the chance to exploit their countless talents.
In the second article we will examine how Lebanon is losing its driving force of growth and development, namely scientific innovation. We will also highlight how Lebanon has failed to accommodate for returnees in terms of opportunities to use their new technological competencies and so end up losing them to the OECD countries.
In addition, Lebanon seems to be focusing on building its services economy, proving to be oblivious to the fact that economic development has moved from a labor intensive economy to a capital and technology intensive one and finally to a high value added and innovation economy i.e. knowledge based economy characterized by highly skilled and educated labor.

Dr. Assem Safieddine, Professor of Finance, AUB,
Dr. Dima Jamali, Professor of Management, AUB,
Maya Daouk, MBA student, AUB, are the authors of this special series of articles.