Zeina Abu Rizk
Special to The Daily Star

Damascus is reportedly making one last effort for a rapprochement between Baabda and Koraytem before making a decision on a possible Cabinet reshuffle here before the end of the year.
That could mean the coming  weeks may be the last chance for President Emile Lahoud and Prime Minister Rafik Hariri to coexist. Damascus is expected to increase the pressure on the prime minister to convince him to cooperate with the president until the end of his presidential term in November next year. If that is not possible, then a change of government will become inevitable, and will probably happen before Parliament’s endorsement of the budget draft.
Despite the numerous reservations Damascus has about Hariri and his performance, Syrian officials still do not believe the time has come for a change of government. A senior government source close to Damascus said that during Transport and Public Works Minister Najib Mikati’s recent two-hour meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, Assad said that the time was not yet right for a change of government, but such a change was not implausible.
The sources said that Syrian officials are expected to ask Speaker Nabih Berri to contribute to efforts aimed at a “rapprochement” between Baabda and Koraytem and to convince Hariri that a more positive approach on his part would be more rewarding. The choice of a possible replacement for the prime minister will be determined by the relationship Damascus wants to have with Hariri when he leaves office. There are five possible replacements for Hariri:
l Adnan Addoum, presently state prosecutor, is strongly opposed to Hariri. His appointment as prime minister would mean that relations between Damascus and Hariri would definitely deteriorate.
l Minister of State Abdel-Rahim Mrad, who is more moderate in his opposition to Hariri. His obedience to Syria is undoubted.
l Tammam Salam is a former Beirut MP and has good relations with Saudi Arabia.
l Tripoli MP and former Prime Minister Omar Karami would be able to secure the backing in the Sunni community for a possible extension or renewal of Lahoud’s mandate. Politically, he is opposed to Hariri.
l Najib Mikati, presently public works minister, is on excellent terms with Syria and has substantial political credibility.
The president’s recent meetings with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir also fueled speculation about a possible Syrian redeployment. However, a senior political source familiar with the issue asserted that, even if possible, a Syrian redeployment is unlikely to take place in the near future. The source argued that Damascus views its presence in Lebanon as vital to its national security, as a bulwark against potential threats from Israel.
Only when the regional situation changes, the sources said, would Syrian troops be removed from Lebanon.
Damascus views the issue of a change in government as important only as far as it could affect Syria’s strategic interests, the senior political source said. Damascus is not very concerned about the present situation in Iraq, the source added, as relations between Syria and the United States are not as bad as has been reported in the media. The source also said that Syria has two main security concerns at the moment: repercussions of the Israeli-Palestinians peace track on Syria and, to a lesser extent, the possibility of political turmoil in Lebanon. This was the reason why Damascus was angry at Hariri for refusing to cooperate with Lahoud, the source said.