Zeina Abu Rizk
Special to The Daily Star

While all eyes are on the authorities’ efforts to combat corruption, preparations are reportedly under way for an unprecedented new electoral law ­ likely to prove controversial ­ which would divide Mount Lebanon into two constituencies.
According to a government source familiar with the issue, Interior Minister Elias Murr is preparing several suggestions for a new electoral law, which would see a new constituency grouping the Chouf, Aley, and the upper part of Baabda, from Araya upward where the Druze are dominant, and another new constituency in the lower part of Baabda ­ which falls to a great extent under Hizbullah’s authority ­ together with the Metn area, Jbeil and Kesrouan.
In the post-Taif era, the division of Mount Lebanon has been a controversial issue: The power bases of many powerful politicians are in the area.
In the parliamentary elections of 2000, the debate over the electoral law started with politicians’ efforts to find a suitable division for this specific area. At this time, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Metn MP Michel Murr, then Interior Minister, began behind-the-scenes contacts with Syrian officials
to protect their interests in the region. These efforts led to the division of Mount Lebanon into three constituencies: the Chouf, Baabda and Aley; the Metn; Jbeil and Kesrouan.
The aim behind the proposed new division of Mount Lebanon appears to be obvious: “giving” the upper part of Baabda to Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who wants to keep Aley and particularly Baabda under his influence.
By joining the second part of Baabda to the Metn and the district of Jbeil-Kesrouan, the loyalists, in particular the Murrs, hope to reinforce their position and weaken that of the opposition. An alliance among the pro-loyalist factions, specifically Hizbullah in Baabda, the Armenians of the Metn’s littoral and Murr in the northern Metn, could improve the Murrs’ election results in the face of fierce opposition which caused problems for the family in the Metn by-election in 2002.
Moreover, the inclusion of Kesrouan and Jbeil in this second constituency would lessen the influence of the Christian opposition, long dominant in the Jbeil-Kesrouan district.
While this new electoral configuration for Mount Lebanon is expected to satisfy Jumblatt, it will probably provoke a new crisis between the authorities and the opposition.
More importantly, a deliberate attempt on the authorities’ part to undermine the Christian opposition’s demand for what it calls a fair electoral law based on the qada is likely to jeopardize the substantial improvement in relations between the authorities and Bkirki recently.
Damascus finds itself in a difficult situation over the division of Mount Lebanon. In addition to being on excellent terms with President Emile Lahoud, Syrian officials have successfully worked over the past year to improve their relations with two important national figures, Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, and Jumblatt. All three parties have different, sometimes conflicting, interests in the region and may not see eye to eye when it comes to the electoral divisions of Mount Lebanon. It will probably be difficult for Damascus to please them all.
In any case, the awaited by-elections in Baabda on Sept. 14 to fill the vacant seat of late Baabda MP Pierre Helou could influence the course of electoral events. If the supporters of exiled former Army Commander General Michel Aoun do well in these elections, it could see the authorities make further efforts to limit the opposition’s showing at the next parliamentary polls.
However, the mounting political interest in corruption is unlikely to allow such an electoral draft to pass without major controversy.
As for the efforts to combat corruption, it is unclear how the authorities’ war on corruption will proceed, and how far it will go.
In judicial circles familiar with the issue of corruption, there is hope that tangible results will come out of the investigation of the agricultural sector, which will begin next Tuesday.
Unlike the electricity case, the agricultural sector file is short and well studied. Abuses that occurred in this sector under former Agriculture Minister Ali Abdullah have been examined in depth, judicial sources said.
The fact that the former agriculture minister no longer has any political protection, as he was expelled from Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement a few months ago, is likely to facilitate the investigation.
However, this does not seem to be the case with the electricity file, where former and current politicians could find themselves directly or indirectly involved in investigations into corruption and waste, which could lead to the politicization of the entire issue. Because of this, skepticism prevails, also in judicial circles, over the possibility of pursuing all leads in the probe, as these could go directly to “unreachable” politicians.
In addition, the electricity file is much more complex than the agriculture one, a judicial source familiar with the two cases said. Because of this, it may be difficult to discover the source of waste or corruption and reveal how widespread it was.